Both Sides Predict Lopsided Outcome in Upcoming Election

Published on October 26th, 2020 10:54 am EST
Written By: Dave Manuel

The 2020 presidential election in the US is as tight as ever.  Illustration. Here's a funny thing when it comes to the upcoming elections in the United States.

Both sides believe that they are currently en route to an overwhelming victory.

The Democrats believe that there will be a "blue wave", while the Republicans believe in a "silent majority" and a "red wave".

Democrats point to the polls that show Biden leading, while Republicans point to the historically inaccurate polls that had Hillary Clinton thrashing Donald Trump in 2016.

In a "blue wave" scenario, the Democrats would win the White House, the House and the Senate. In a "red wave" scenario, President Trump would retain the White House, while seats would be added in both the House and Senate.

What are the odds of a "blue wave" and "red wave" taking place?

Let's take a look at the current betting odds, courtesy of a major offshore sportsbook.

What are the Odds of a Democratic sweep? (White House win, Senate win, House control retained)

Yes, -125
No, -105

As you can see, the odds of a "blue wave" are slightly better than a coin flip to take place, at least according to this bookmaker.

So, if you wagered $125 on a "blue wave" taking place, you would win $100 in profit back.


Most Republicans would likely agree that there is very little chance that they'll regain control of the House this election cycle.

The best case scenario in the eyes of most on the right is to retain control of the Senate and White House.

What are the odds of that taking place?

To start, the odds of the Republicans to retain control of the Senate, while the Dems retain control of the House, currently look like this:

Republicans Control Senate/Dems Control House, +140
Any Other Scenario, -170

So, the "Any other scenario" would include Dems winning control of the Senate and retaining control of the House, as well as Reps winning the House losing the Senate and Reps winning both the House and Senate.

Finally, Trump is roughly a +150 underdog to win the White House.

So, if you did a parlay with Trump winning the White House/Reps retaining control of the Senate/Dems retaining control of the House, you'd be looking at about a +500 payout.


So, in short, this sportsbook views the chance of a "Blue Wave" as being quite likely (better than a coin flip), while a decisive election day victory for the Republicans (winning the White House, retaining the Senate) as a significant long shot.

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