Conor McGregor Currently -450 To Beat Younger Diaz

Published on February 26th, 2016 3:35 pm EST

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UFC 196 poster - Top half - Conor McGregor vs. Nate DiazEarlier this week, the mixed martial arts world was thrown into turmoil after Rafael dos Anjos was forced to pull out of his planned fight against Conor McGregor due to a broken foot. McGregor was moving up to Lightweight to take on dos Anjos in an attempt to become a two division champion.

After dos Anjos pulled out, a number of fighters indicated their willingness to take on McGregor on short notice. Frankie Edgar and Jose Aldo were both reportedly offered the fight but turned it down due to various reasons, while Nate Diaz, Donald Cerrone and Anthony Pettis all indicated that they wanted the fight.

In the end, the UFC and Conor McGregor elected to give Diaz the fight.

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The McGregor/dos Anjos was projected to be quite close, though the oddsmakers aren't giving Nate Diaz much of a chance to win.

Here are the current odds for the fight:

Conor McGregor, -450
Nate Diaz, +325

According to these odds, McGregor should win the fight roughly 80% of the time.

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While Diaz certainly has the edge if the fight goes to the ground, McGregor is seen as having the massive power advantage. Diaz is not known for his power, which means that his best path to victory is volume striking his way to a decision victory or submitting McGregor.

It seems unlikely that Diaz will be able to avoid the power shots of McGregor for a full five rounds, though we have never seen McGregor wade his way into the championship rounds. Diaz, on the other hand, went five full rounds against Ben Henderson in December of 2012.

Another thing that will likely impact this fight is the fact that Diaz is taking it on short notice. His cardio might not be up to his normal standards, while McGregor has had the benefit of a full camp.

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In short, Conor McGregor is the comfortable favourite to win next Saturday night against Nate Diaz.

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