This is the game Arsenal's season has been building toward - not just a Champions League quarter-final place, but proof that a historic quadruple chase is real. Mikel Arteta's side take on Bayer Leverkusen at a packed Emirates Stadium knowing a win or draw sends them through, but that Leverkusen - fired up after a disputed penalty in the first leg - will arrive in London with genuine belief they can pull off a result that would be historic for their club.

The first leg at the BayArena was a drab affair that Arsenal did not deserve to draw. They had six shots all game, managed just two on target, and were heading for their first Champions League defeat of the season before Noni Madueke won a controversial penalty in the 86th minute and Kai Havertz scored it - against his former club, in front of 30,000 fans who had given him a warm reception when he came off the bench. Leverkusen were furious. Their manager Kasper Hjulmand still insists it was not a penalty. Tuesday's second leg will be played in that context.

Good late-afternoon conditions for football at the Emirates. Mild, mostly dry, no significant wind forecast. No weather factor in this game.

Arsenal have a complicated injury picture. Martin Odegaard - their captain and chief creative force - remains out with a knee issue, with the Carabao Cup final against Manchester City on 22 March his most realistic return target. Mikel Merino is out until late May with a broken foot. Ben White has a knock with no confirmed return date. The good news: William Saliba, Declan Rice, Martin Zubimendi and Gabriel are all fit. Leandro Trossard missed the first leg and remains a doubt. Riccardo Calafiori has returned to training. Bukayo Saka was substituted at 60 minutes in the first leg - Arteta insisted it was tactical, not injury-related.

Bayer Leverkusen were without several key players in the first leg. Mark Flekken (first-choice goalkeeper, knee) remains out. Loic Bade, Arthur and Lucas Vazquez are all still unavailable. Eliesse Ben Seghir was targeting a return this weekend and could be available for the second leg. Nathan Tella (foot) is close. Patrick Schick - their top UCL scorer with 4 goals - came off the bench in the first leg and could start in London. Teenager Christian Kofane started the first leg and impressed despite the result.

Arsenal conceded for the first time in the UCL all season in the 46th minute of the first leg - from a Leverkusen corner, of all things. Their UCL defensive record had been spotless before Andrich's header. Leverkusen's UCL goals have been spread across the 90 minutes with no obvious peak, though they were strong from set pieces in the first leg.

Goal timing splits based on UCL 2025-26 data. Source: Opta/UEFA Stats Centre.

Arsenal's home record this season has been exceptional - they have not lost at the Emirates in any competition this campaign and have won all their UCL group phase home games. Their form in 2026 has wobbled slightly in league play (won only 3 of 8 PL games since January), but the Emirates remains a fortress. Leverkusen's away form is more mixed: wins in big games (Olympiacos, Hamburg) alongside losses (Galatasaray) and draws (Freiburg, Slavia, Arsenal).

Arsenal home record shown as they host this leg. Leverkusen away record shown as they travel to London. Results newest to oldest, left to right.

The Emirates will be sold out and loud. Arsenal's home record in European football this season is perfect - they won all four home UCL group stage games and have not lost at the Emirates in any competition this campaign. For Leverkusen, this is exactly the kind of intimidating atmosphere their domestic form suggests they may struggle to handle - they have won just 4 of their last 10 Bundesliga games since the winter restart.

Asian Handicap removes the draw - you win or lose. Arsenal -1.5 needs a 2-goal winning margin. Leverkusen +1.5 cashes if they win, draw, or lose by exactly one.

Bet365 prices, 14 March 2026. Gabriel Jesus and Viktor Gyokeres both sit at 2.00 anytime - that Jesus is priced level with Gyokeres tells you Arteta might rotate the Swede. Havertz at 2.40 is the one I keep coming back to - seven goal involvements in his last six UCL games, he scored the pen in leg one, and he's at home. The narrative practically writes itself. Schick at 4.75 is the Leverkusen play - if he starts and finds a goal early, the whole dynamic shifts.

Bet365, 14 March 2026. Anytime scorer = 90 mins + injury time only, no extra time. Arsenal in red, Leverkusen in green.

Estimated combined price calculated by multiplying individual odds. Actual SGP price at Bet365 will differ. 18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.