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Supreme Novices' Hurdle
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THEKING
Day
Tuesday
Time
13:20
Grade
Grade 1
Distance
2m ½f
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Where To Bet on Supreme Novices' Hurdle
Race Details:
Date: 2026.03.10
Grade: 1
Open To: Horses Aged Four Years and Older
Track: Grass
Length: 3,298 metres
Location: United Kingdom
Supreme Novices' Hurdle 2026: Cheltenham Festival Betting Preview
The Cheltenham Roar Awaits as the Festival Curtain-Raiser Takes Shape
Tuesday, 10 March 2026 | 1:20 PM | Cheltenham Racecourse, Prestbury Park, Gloucestershire
Grade 1 | 2 Miles 1/2 Furlong | Old Course | 8 Hurdles | £150,000
Nothing in jump racing quite matches the noise that erupts when the starter drops the flag for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle. It is the opening act of the Cheltenham Festival, the signal that four days of the best National Hunt action on the planet is officially underway, and the famous Cheltenham Roar is the soundtrack. This year's renewal, sponsored by Sky Bet and run in memory of Michael O'Sullivan, shapes up as a proper contest between battle-hardened novices from some of the biggest yards in Britain and Ireland.
Kopek Des Bordes landed the prize twelve months ago for Willie Mullins and Paul Townend at odds of 4/6, making it eight wins in the race for the all-conquering Closutton operation. This time around, Mullins does not appear to have a clear number one for the opener, and the market is headed by a Nicky Henderson-trained six-year-old who has been making a serious impression on the British trials circuit.
Old Park Star: The Market Leader
Time Stamp: February 14, 2026
Odds Subject to Change
Source: Bet365
Old Park Star 3.00 | Talk The Talk 4.50 | El Cairos 6.50 | Mydaddypaddy 13.00 | Idaho Sun 17.00 | Mossy Fen Road 17.00 | Ballyfad 21.00
Old Park Star sits at the head of affairs for Nicky Henderson and jockey Nico de Boinville, and the numbers back up the position. He is three from three over hurdles since joining Henderson from Paul Nicholls in the summer, with wins at Kempton, Cheltenham, and then a demolition job in the Sky Bet Supreme Trial at Haydock in January that had the racing world sitting up. That Haydock performance, where he put 18 lengths between himself and Hurricane Pat, earned him a Timeform rating of 153p, placing him 5lb clear of any other novice hurdler in Britain or Ireland.
The profile is strikingly similar to some of Henderson's previous Supreme winners. Altior, Shishkin, and Constitution Hill all came into this race as polished jumpers with bags of natural speed and the ability to travel strongly through a big-field Grade 1. De Boinville has ridden three of Henderson's five Supreme winners, including Shishkin and Constitution Hill, and described Old Park Star's turn of foot as "devastating" after the Haydock romp.
The concerns are worth noting. Old Park Star did not run in any of the traditional key trials on the Irish circuit. His form has come against British opposition, and while the Haydock victory was visually spectacular, the field he beat was not Grade 1 standard. Jonbon won the same Rossington Main trial in 2022 and was subsequently hammered by 22 lengths by Constitution Hill in the Supreme. Being impressive at Haydock and being impressive up the Cheltenham hill in March are two very different things.
The other question mark is ground conditions. Old Park Star has not run on genuinely testing going, and with Cheltenham in March often producing soft or heavy ground, particularly on the Old Course, it remains to be seen how he handles the mud. Henderson has been careful with his campaigning this season, and the suspicion is that the best is yet to come, but the unknowns keep the price at 3.00 rather than something shorter.
Talk The Talk: Ireland's Strongest Card
If the Dublin Racing Festival is the traditional dress rehearsal for Cheltenham, then Talk The Talk announced himself loud and clear. Joseph O'Brien's five-year-old took the Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown in early February, a Grade 1 that has produced five Supreme winners in the last twelve years, including Kopek Des Bordes, Appreciate It, Klassical Dream, Vautour, and Champagne Fever. The form line is impeccable.
What made the DRF performance even more impressive was the manner of it. JJ Slevin rode him stone cold from the back under O'Brien's instructions, giving the horse a patient education rather than asking for everything. Talk The Talk made up significant ground in the home straight and got his head in front by a short head from Ballyfad, with King Rasko Grey a further neck back in third. The fact that he could come from off a slow pace and still reel in two good horses up the Leopardstown straight says plenty about his engine.
O'Brien has confirmed the Supreme is the target rather than the longer Turners Novices' Hurdle, reasoning that the likely fast pace of the Supreme will suit Talk The Talk's style of racing better. The trainer knows what it takes to win at the Festival, and the fact that he is actively choosing the Supreme over a potentially softer alternative tells you how highly he rates this horse.
The worry is the fall. Talk The Talk came down at the last when leading the Future Champions Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown over Christmas, his first attempt at Grade 1 level. He has four runs over hurdles and a fall on his CV. At the Cheltenham Festival, where the fences come at you thick and fast in a big field running at a genuine pace, any jumping frailty tends to get exposed. At 4.50, the market respects his claims but factors in the risk.
El Cairos: Raw Talent, Rough Edges
Gordon Elliott's six-year-old is the most talked-about horse in the race who has done the least to actually prove it on the racecourse. El Cairos ran fifth in last year's Champion Bumper when trained by Gary Moore, then changed hands for £410,000 at David Maxwell's dispersal sale and was sent to Elliott's yard. His hurdling debut at Leopardstown on Boxing Day was the stuff of both excitement and exasperation. He travelled beautifully, hit the front, and then fell at the final flight when looking the certain winner.
Elliott swerved the Dublin Racing Festival entirely and instead sent El Cairos to Thurles for a maiden hurdle, where he started at 1/5 and won, but not without blundering at the last again. The talent is undeniable. The jumping is a genuine concern. Two starts over hurdles, one fall, one blunder, and a maiden hurdle win at a minor track is not exactly a CV that screams readiness for the opening Grade 1 of the Cheltenham Festival.
The counter-argument is that Elliott knows exactly what he is doing. He has won this race before with Labaik, a horse who refused to race multiple times before his Supreme triumph, so he is no stranger to managing enigmatic types. El Cairos clearly possesses a huge engine, and if the jumping holds together, he has the raw ability to win this race. At 6.50, the market is pricing the potential rather than the evidence.
The Each-Way Market
Below the top three, there are several interesting horses at bigger prices.
Mydaddypaddy (Dan Skelton, 13.00) was the early-season market leader after two bloodless victories at Carlisle and Haydock, where he cruised home without coming off the bridle. The Grade 1 Formby at Aintree over Christmas was supposed to be the coronation, but he was beaten three and a quarter lengths by Idaho Sun in a race where only five of the eight hurdles were jumped due to low sun. There were excuses. The omitted hurdles took away his jumping advantage and turned the race into a stamina test over an extended flat run-in, and Idaho Sun had the superior bumper form to exploit those conditions. At 13.00, there is each-way value if you believe the real Mydaddypaddy is the one who was demolishing fields in the autumn.
Idaho Sun (Harry Fry, 17.00) won that Grade 1 Formby and has three wins from three over hurdles this season. He was sixth in last year's Champion Bumper, so he has Cheltenham experience, and his big engine carried him home at Aintree. The question is whether the omitted hurdles at Aintree flattered him. At 17.00, he represents genuine each-way value if the ground comes up soft, which would play to his stamina strengths.
Ballyfad (Gordon Elliott, 21.00) chased Talk The Talk home at the Dublin Racing Festival and has won three of his four starts this season. He stayed on strongly up the Leopardstown straight, and that stamina should translate well to the Cheltenham hill. At 21.00, he looks overpriced for a horse who was beaten a short head in the key trial. The each-way angle at those odds is very appealing.
Betting Outlook
Time Stamp: February 14, 2026
Odds Subject to Change
Source: Bet365
This is a Supreme that has a clear market leader in Old Park Star, but enough question marks around him to keep the race genuinely competitive. The lack of a Grade 1 victory, the untested ground question, and the historical precedent of Rossington Main winners not always following up in the Supreme all give reasons to look beyond the favourite.
From a betting perspective, the outright winner market at 3.00 for Old Park Star represents fair value rather than a standout price. He is probably the most likely winner, but he is not a certainty by any stretch. For those who want to back him, the Non-Runner No Bet market on all 28 races is a welcome safety net this year, as Betfair confirmed this week.
The more interesting plays sit further down the card. Talk The Talk at 4.50 each-way offers a strong return given his Grade 1 credentials and the historical importance of the DRF trial. If you are looking for bigger prices, Ballyfad at 21.00 each-way is the standout. He was beaten a short head in the key trial, he stays well, and 21.00 is too big for a horse with that level of form.
The favourite has won only 32% of Supreme Novices' Hurdles over the last six years. This is a race that regularly throws up surprises, and with a large field likely to go hard from the off on the Old Course, pace and jumping accuracy will be critical. Trends suggest looking for a horse that won last time out, has been rated 144 or higher, and has run within the last 81 days. Old Park Star and Talk The Talk both fit that profile cleanly. El Cairos, who only won a maiden hurdle at Thurles, falls down on several key trends.
Quick Reference: Key Odds
Time Stamp: February 14, 2026
Odds Subject to Change
Source: Bet365
Old Park Star 3.00 | Trainer: Nicky Henderson | Jockey: Nico de Boinville
Talk The Talk 4.50 | Trainer: Joseph O'Brien | Jockey: JJ Slevin
El Cairos 6.50 | Trainer: Gordon Elliott | Jockey: TBC
Mydaddypaddy 13.00 | Trainer: Dan Skelton | Jockey: TBC
Idaho Sun 17.00 | Trainer: Harry Fry | Jockey: TBC
Mossy Fen Road 17.00 | Trainer: Harry Derham | Jockey: TBC
Ballyfad 21.00 | Trainer: Gordon Elliott | Jockey: TBC
2025 Supreme Novices' Hurdle Result
1st Kopek Des Bordes (4/6f) - W.P. Mullins / Paul Townend
2nd William Munny (8/1) - Barry Connell / Sean Flanagan
3rd Romeo Coolio (9/2) - Gordon Elliott / Jack Kennedy
11 ran | Distances: 1 3/4l, 5 1/2l | Time: 3m 52.04s
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