Sports-King.com - NFL Analysis
Super Bowl Winners: Preseason Odds for Every Champion in History
What were the odds before the season started? Before the playoffs? Before the Big Game? We tracked the futures odds for every Super Bowl champion - from preseason longshots to parade favorites. The results reveal who defied the oddsmakers and who fulfilled their destiny.
The Numbers at a Glance
60 Super Bowls. 60 champions. Here is how the oddsmakers fared.
150/1
Longest Preseason Odds
(1999 Rams)
(1999 Rams)
2/1
Shortest Preseason Odds
(1994 49ers)
(1994 49ers)
+1350
Avg Preseason Odds
(1977-2025)
(1977-2025)
21
Won SB as
Game-Day Dog
Game-Day Dog
14
Preseason Odds
+1500 or Longer
+1500 or Longer
The bottom line: Only 6 of 49 champions with available preseason data (12%) entered the season as the betting favorite. The most common preseason odds range for eventual champions is +600 to +1200, accounting for 30 of 49 winners (61%). The lesson? You probably do not need to be the preseason favorite - but you do need to be in the conversation.
The Biggest Preseason Longshots to Win It All
These teams entered the season with the longest odds - and won anyway.
#1
150/1
1999 St. Louis Rams
SB XXXIV · Beat Titans 23-16
#2
60/1
2001 New England Patriots
SB XXXVI · Beat Rams 20-17
#2
60/1
2025 Seattle Seahawks
SB LX · Beat Patriots 29-13
#4
50/1
1981 San Francisco 49ers
SB XVI · Beat Bengals 26-21
#5
40/1
2017 Philadelphia Eagles
SB LII · Beat Patriots 41-33
#6
35/1
1982 Washington Redskins
SB XVII · Beat Dolphins 27-17
#6
35/1
1980 Oakland Raiders
SB XV · Beat Eagles 27-10
#8
30/1
2007 New York Giants
SB XLII · Beat Patriots 17-14
The Greatest Show on Turf came out of nowhere. The 1999 St. Louis Rams are the biggest preseason longshot to ever win the Super Bowl at a staggering 150-to-1. Quarterback Kurt Warner went from stocking grocery shelves to NFL MVP, leading a team that was 4-12 the year before to a championship. No other Super Bowl champion has even come close to those preseason odds. The 2001 Patriots (60/1) launched the Brady dynasty, while the 2025 Seahawks matched those long odds to cap their own Cinderella run.
Preseason Odds of Every Super Bowl Champion (1977-2025)
Super Bowl Day: Underdogs Who Won It All
21 of 60 Super Bowl winners were underdogs on game day. Here are the biggest upsets.
Biggest SB Upset Winners (by spread)
SB Winners: Favorites vs Underdogs by Decade
The upset trend is accelerating. In the first 20 Super Bowls (1967-1986), underdogs won just 5 times. In the 20 most recent (2007-2026), underdogs have won 11 times (plus one pick-em). The biggest upset in Super Bowl history remains the 1968 New York Jets, who were 18-point underdogs against the Baltimore Colts - and won 16-7 in Joe Namath's famous "Guarantee" game. The 2007 Giants upset the undefeated Patriots as 12-point dogs. Three of the last five Super Bowls have been won by the underdog.
From Preseason to Parade: The Odds Journey
How did the odds shift from preseason to kickoff? Some teams surged. Others barely moved.
Odds Journey - Select Champions (Preseason to Pre-Playoffs to Super Bowl)
The biggest odds swing ever: The 1999 Rams went from +15000 (150/1) preseason to -250 (Super Bowl favorite). That is a drop from a 0.7% implied probability to a 71% implied probability - the most dramatic odds swing in Super Bowl history. The 2011 Giants went the opposite direction - their preseason +2200 actually worsened to +4000 at one point during the season before their improbable run.
Every Super Bowl Winner: The Complete Odds Record
The complete record - 60 Super Bowls, preseason odds (where available), pre-playoff odds, and game-day spreads. Click any column header to sort.
| Season | SB | Winner | Loser | Score | Preseason | Pre-Playoffs | Pre-SB | SB Spread | SB Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | LX | Seattle Seahawks | New England | 29-13 | +6000 | +700 | -235 | SEA -4.5 | Favorite Won |
| 2024 | LIX | Philadelphia Eagles | Kansas City | 40-22 | +1200 | +450 | +100 | KC -1.5 | Underdog Won |
| 2023 | LVIII | Kansas City Chiefs | San Francisco | 25-22 | +600 | +650 | +110 | SF -2 | Underdog Won |
| 2022 | LVII | Kansas City Chiefs | Philadelphia | 38-35 | +1000 | +500 | +100 | PHI -1.5 | Underdog Won |
| 2021 | LVI | Los Angeles Rams | Cincinnati | 23-20 | +1200 | +900 | -200 | LAR -4.5 | Favorite Won |
| 2020 | LV | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Kansas City | 31-9 | +1000 | +1400 | +140 | KC -3 | Underdog Won |
| 2019 | LIV | Kansas City Chiefs | San Francisco | 31-20 | +600 | +800 | -130 | KC -1 | Favorite Won |
| 2018 | LIII | New England Patriots | LA Rams | 13-3 | +600 | +800 | -135 | NE -2.5 | Favorite Won |
| 2017 | LII | Philadelphia Eagles | New England | 41-33 | +4000 | +1000 | +170 | NE -4 | Underdog Won |
| 2016 | LI | New England Patriots | Atlanta | 34-28 | +600 | +180 | -145 | NE -3 | Favorite Won |
| 2015 | 50 | Denver Broncos | Carolina | 24-10 | +900 | +1200 | +180 | CAR -5 | Underdog Won |
| 2014 | XLIX | New England Patriots | Seattle | 28-24 | +650 | +250 | +100 | Pick-em | N/A |
| 2013 | XLVIII | Seattle Seahawks | Denver | 43-8 | +800 | +225 | +110 | DEN -2.5 | Underdog Won |
| 2012 | XLVII | Baltimore Ravens | San Francisco | 34-31 | +1800 | +3000 | +175 | SF -4.5 | Underdog Won |
| 2011 | XLVI | New York Giants | New England | 21-17 | +2200 | +4000 | +130 | NE -2.5 | Underdog Won |
| 2010 | XLV | Green Bay Packers | Pittsburgh | 31-25 | +1100 | +2800 | -145 | GB -3 | Favorite Won |
| 2009 | XLIV | New Orleans Saints | Indianapolis | 31-17 | +2000 | +300 | +180 | IND -5 | Underdog Won |
| 2008 | XLIII | Pittsburgh Steelers | Arizona | 27-23 | +1800 | +350 | +150 | PIT -7 | Favorite Won |
| 2007 | XLII | New York Giants | New England | 17-14 | +3000 | +5000 | +1500 | NE -12 | Underdog Won |
| 2006 | XLI | Indianapolis Colts | Chicago | 29-17 | +600 | +600 | +140 | IND -7 | Favorite Won |
| 2005 | XL | Pittsburgh Steelers | Seattle | 21-10 | +1200 | +800 | +300 | PIT -4 | Favorite Won |
| 2004 | XXXIX | New England Patriots | Philadelphia | 24-21 | +600 | +250 | +140 | NE -7 | Favorite Won |
| 2003 | XXXVIII | New England Patriots | Carolina | 32-29 | +1500 | +200 | +120 | NE -7 | Favorite Won |
| 2002 | XXXVII | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Oakland | 48-21 | +1200 | +700 | +500 | OAK -4 | Underdog Won |
| 2001 | XXXVI | New England Patriots | St. Louis | 20-17 | +6000 | +900 | +1400 | STL -14 | Underdog Won |
| 2000 | XXXV | Baltimore Ravens | NY Giants | 34-7 | +2200 | +1200 | +250 | BAL -3 | Favorite Won |
| 1999 | XXXIV | St. Louis Rams | Tennessee | 23-16 | +15000 | +160 | -250 | STL -7 | Favorite Won |
| 1998 | XXXIII | Denver Broncos | Atlanta | 34-19 | +600 | +150 | +120 | DEN -7.5 | Favorite Won |
| 1997 | XXXII | Denver Broncos | Green Bay | 31-24 | +1000 | +1000 | +600 | GB -11 | Underdog Won |
| 1996 | XXXI | Green Bay Packers | New England | 35-21 | +800 | +160 | -300 | GB -14 | Favorite Won |
| 1995 | XXX | Dallas Cowboys | Pittsburgh | 27-17 | +300 | +220 | -167 | DAL -13.5 | Favorite Won |
| 1994 | XXIX | San Francisco 49ers | San Diego | 49-26 | +200 | -167 | -200 | SF -18.5 | Favorite Won |
| 1993 | XXVIII | Dallas Cowboys | Buffalo | 30-13 | +350 | +120 | +120 | DAL -10.5 | Favorite Won |
| 1992 | XXVII | Dallas Cowboys | Buffalo | 52-17 | +1000 | +300 | +250 | DAL -6.5 | Favorite Won |
| 1991 | XXVI | Washington Redskins | Buffalo | 37-24 | +1000 | -125 | -200 | WAS -7 | Favorite Won |
| 1990 | XXV | New York Giants | Buffalo | 20-19 | +800 | +600 | +500 | BUF -7 | Underdog Won |
| 1989 | XXIV | San Francisco 49ers | Denver | 55-10 | +600 | +140 | -167 | SF -12 | Favorite Won |
| 1988 | XXIII | San Francisco 49ers | Cincinnati | 20-16 | +300 | +400 | +150 | SF -7 | Favorite Won |
| 1987 | XXII | Washington Redskins | Denver | 42-10 | +1000 | +1000 | +180 | DEN -3 | Underdog Won |
| 1986 | XXI | New York Giants | Denver | 39-20 | +1200 | +250 | -167 | NYG -9.5 | Favorite Won |
| 1985 | XX | Chicago Bears | New England | 46-10 | +1000 | +100 | -200 | CHI -10 | Favorite Won |
| 1984 | XIX | San Francisco 49ers | Miami | 38-16 | +700 | +180 | -180 | SF -3.5 | Favorite Won |
| 1983 | XVIII | LA Raiders | Washington | 38-9 | +1200 | +300 | - | WAS -3 | Underdog Won |
| 1982 | XVII | Washington Redskins | Miami | 27-17 | +3500 | +600 | +260 | MIA -3 | Underdog Won |
| 1981 | XVI | San Francisco 49ers | Cincinnati | 26-21 | +5000 | +350 | - | SF -1 | Favorite Won |
| 1980 | XV | Oakland Raiders | Philadelphia | 27-10 | +3500 | - | - | PHI -3 | Underdog Won |
| 1979 | XIV | Pittsburgh Steelers | LA Rams | 31-19 | +500 | - | - | PIT -10.5 | Favorite Won |
| 1978 | XIII | Pittsburgh Steelers | Dallas | 35-31 | +600 | - | - | PIT -3.5 | Favorite Won |
| 1977 | XII | Dallas Cowboys | Denver | 27-10 | +600 | - | - | DAL -6 | Favorite Won |
| 1976 | XI | Oakland Raiders | Minnesota | 32-14 | - | - | - | OAK -4 | Favorite Won |
| 1975 | X | Pittsburgh Steelers | Dallas | 21-17 | - | - | - | PIT -7 | Favorite Won |
| 1974 | IX | Pittsburgh Steelers | Minnesota | 16-6 | - | - | - | PIT -3 | Favorite Won |
| 1973 | VIII | Miami Dolphins | Minnesota | 24-7 | - | - | - | MIA -6.5 | Favorite Won |
| 1972 | VII | Miami Dolphins | Washington | 14-7 | - | - | - | MIA -1 | Favorite Won |
| 1971 | VI | Dallas Cowboys | Miami | 24-3 | - | - | - | DAL -6 | Favorite Won |
| 1970 | V | Baltimore Colts | Dallas | 16-13 | - | - | - | BAL -2.5 | Favorite Won |
| 1969 | IV | Kansas City Chiefs | Minnesota | 23-7 | - | - | - | MIN -12 | Underdog Won |
| 1968 | III | New York Jets | Baltimore Colts | 16-7 | - | - | - | BAL -18 | Underdog Won |
| 1967 | II | Green Bay Packers | Oakland | 33-14 | - | - | - | GB -13.5 | Favorite Won |
| 1966 | I | Green Bay Packers | Kansas City | 35-10 | - | - | - | GB -14 | Favorite Won |
Franchise Analysis: Who Defied the Odds Most?
Which franchises consistently beat their preseason odds? Which entered as favorites?
Average Preseason Odds by Franchise (Multi-Time Winners, 1977-2025)
Did the Preseason Favorite Win?
How often does the team with the shortest preseason odds actually win the Super Bowl?
Preseason Favorite vs Actual Winner
Preseason Odds Range of SB Winners
The preseason favorite almost never wins. Of the 49 seasons with available preseason data (1977-2025), the team with the shortest preseason odds went on to win the Super Bowl only 6 times: the 1994 49ers (+200), 1995 Cowboys (+300), 1998 Broncos (+600), 2016 Patriots (+600), 2018 Patriots (+600), and 2023 Chiefs (+600). That is a 12% success rate. The market is broadly correct - favorites win more often than random - but picking the single shortest-odds team is a losing strategy.
