Barcelona Has 98% Chance of Moving Forward

Published on May 9th, 2015 10:56 am EST

In the first leg of their Champions League semi-finals match earlier this week, Barcelona finally managed to break through the Bayern Munich defense to notch a 3-0 victory at home.

The contest will now switch back to Bayern Munich next week, as Bayern hopes to mount a desperate comeback in order to salvage a trip to the finals.

Bayern Munich faced an uphill battle in the quarter-finals as well, as they fell behind to FC Porto 3-1 before destroying them 6-1 in the return leg at Bayern Munich. Barcelona, however, is a much different beast, and Bayern is going to have a much harder time pushing their opponents around.


So what are the odds that Bayern Munich can put up at least three goals at home this week while holding Barcelona to zero?

According to the bookmakers, Barcelona has a 98% chance of advancing to the Champions League finals to play the winner of Real Madrid vs Juventus. Bayern Munich, on the other hand, has just a 6.67% chance of advancing.

The actual odds of Bayern Munich advancing are likely much lower, however the bookmakers will leave the Bayern Munich line where it is in order to entice Bayern Munich supporters to bet on an inferior line. The actual odds of Bayern Munich advancing are likely closer to 40.00 rather than the 15.00 that the line is currently set at.

Bayern Munich has the SLIGHT edge to win on May 12th, as they are currently listed at 2.50 to win, while Barcelona is listed at 2.60.

Just winning will not be good enough for Bayern Munich, however, as they need to beat Barcelona by at least three goals while holding Lionel Messi and company to zero road goals. Mission Impossible or can Bayern Munich pull off the miracle?

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