USA vs Belgium Betting Odds and Preview - World Cup 2026 Round of 16, July 6

Twelve years is a long time to wait for a rematch. In 2014, Belgium ended the USA's World Cup in the Round of 16 in a game most Americans remember for Tim Howard's record-setting night in goal, with Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku doing the damage in extra time. On Monday night in Seattle, with a quarter-final spot on the line, the USA gets its shot at revenge - and this time De Bruyne and Lukaku are still around, only now they are the aging legs instead of the fresh ones.

Bet365 has this one about as tight as a knockout game gets: USA 2.55, the draw 3.50, Belgium 2.70 in 90 minutes, and a dead-even 1.90 apiece to qualify. Odds subject to change. The market is telling you it has no idea who advances, which feels about right for a matchup between a young host nation riding a wave and a golden generation on its last dance.

Quick reminder on how these settle: the Full Time Result market is 90 minutes plus stoppage time only, so a regulation draw pays 3.50 even if someone wins it in extra time. To Qualify covers everything through penalties. Bet365 is also running Early Payout and enhanced prices on the main line, with the boosted numbers shown above.

Belgium's problem is not talent, it is time. De Bruyne and Lukaku were the extra-time heroes against this same opponent twelve years ago, and against Senegal they needed every one of 120 minutes again after falling two goals behind. The comeback showed the character is still there, but a team that keeps needing to chase games is a team whose defense keeps letting it happen. Both teams to score at 1.61 is priced short for a reason: Belgium has been open, and the USA has scored in every game this tournament.

The American case is about energy and the building. Seattle has been the USA's second home this tournament - the Australia win came right here - and Lumen Field on a Monday night with a quarter-final on the line will be as loud as any American soccer crowd has ever been. The concern is the missing focal point. Balogun's suspension takes away their starting striker, and against Courtois you generally need your finishing to be ruthless. Pulisic at 2.10 to score or assist is the shortest player price on the board, which tells you where Pochettino's attack now runs through.

One more wrinkle worth noting: Belgium has now played twice at this exact stadium, including 120 minutes just five days before kickoff. Familiarity or fatigue - pick your interpretation, because the price makers clearly could not.

1. Both Teams to Score at 1.61. Belgium has conceded while chasing, the USA has scored in all four of its games, and a Belgium side that fell two behind against Senegal is not built for shutouts right now. Short price, high confidence.

2. Draw and Under 2.5 at 4.50. The 2014 script exactly: 0-0 after 90, decided later. If you think both coaches tighten up with a quarter-final at stake, this is the value expression of a cagey game, and it still leaves your To Qualify ticket alive.

3. Tillman to score or assist at 2.75. He scored against Bosnia, he inherits Balogun's minutes in the middle of the attack, and the market has not fully repriced him. The best price-to-role mismatch on the board.

4. De Bruyne nostalgia tax. He scored against the USA in 2014 and assisted the winner against Senegal, but 2.25 to score or assist for a 35-year-old who just played 120 minutes is thin. We would rather have De Ketelaere at 2.50, who has been Belgium's liveliest attacker this tournament.

We lean USA to qualify at 1.90. Belgium's spine is legendary but it just emptied the tank against Senegal, and asking those legs for potentially another 120 minutes five days later, in front of a hostile record crowd, against the youngest and fastest team they have faced all month, is a big ask. Pair it with Both Teams to Score at 1.61 as the comfortable play of the day. If you want one flyer, Tillman to score or assist at 2.75 is the number we think disappears by kickoff. As always: bet only what you can afford to lose, and treat it as entertainment, not income.