A Breakdown of the Different Odds To Win Playoff Series

Published on June 19th, 2022 1:07 am EST
Written By: Dave Manuel


Your team is up 2-0 in a series, and you'd like to know what their odds are of winning.

Your team is down 3-1, and you want to know if they still stand a chance.

Your team went down 2-0 but has come back and now leads the series 3-2.

What are a team's odds to win in these scenarios, or any other that might come up in a NHL playoff series?

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First off, let's breakdown the historical odds to win series based on different scenarios:

Up 1-0, 68.3% Chance of Winning Series
Up 2-0, 86.3% Chance of Winning Series
Up 3-0, 98% Chance of Winning Series

Up 2-1, 69.3% Chance of Winning Series
Up 3-1, 90.6% Chance of Winning Series

Up 3-2, 78.6% Chance of Winning Series

Series Tied 1-1, 52.2% Chance of Winning Series
Series Tied 2-2, 48.4% Chance of Winning Series
Series Tied 3-3, 48.4% Chance of Winning Series

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Now, let's break down more scenarios, while also taking into account whether a team was home/away when a certain game was won:

Win Game 1 as Home Team, Up 1-0
74.7%

Win Game 1 as Away Team, Up 1-0
57.3%

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Win Game 2 as Home Team, Series Tied 1-1
55.8%

Win Game 2 as Away Team, Series Tied 1-1
48.6%

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Win Game 2 as Home Team, Up 2-0
88.2%

Win Game 2 as Away Team, Up 2-0
81.3%

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Win Game 3 as Home Team, Up 2-1
62.7%

Win Game 3 as Away Team, Up 2-1
70.5%

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Win Game 3 as Home Team, Up 3-0
98.2%

Win Game 3 as Away Team, Up 3-0
97.9%

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Win Game 3 as Home Team, Down 2-1
21.8%

Win Game 3 as Away Team, Down 2-1
38.0%

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Win Game 4 as Home Team, Up 3-1
86.3%

Win Game 4 as Away Team, Up 3-1
91.3%

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Win Game 4 as Home Team, Series Tied 2-2
42.3%

Win Game 4 as Away Team, Series Tied 2-2
57.3%

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Win Game 4 as Home Team, Down 3-1
5.2%

Win Game 4 as Away Team, Down 3-1
5.6%

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Win Game 5 as Home Team, Up 3-2
80.1%

Win Game 5 as Away Team, Up 3-2
76.1%

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Win Game 5 as Home Team, Down 3-2
22.1%

Win Game 5 as Away Team, Down 3-2
20.8%

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Win Game 6 as Home Team, Series Tied 3-3
42.6%

Win Game 6 as Away Team, Series Tied 3-3
58.8%


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These numbers are based on many decades worth of playoff data.