NFL Holdouts: It All Comes Down to Guarantees

Published on August 28th, 2025 12:18 pm EST
Written By: Dave Manuel


NFL holdouts happen almost every summer. A star player skips training camp, refuses to report, and makes headlines. Why would a player under contract walk away from the field? The answer lies in how NFL contracts are built, and why they look nothing like deals in other major sports.

In Major League Baseball, the National Basketball Association, and the National Hockey League, contracts are fully guaranteed. If a player signs a four-year, $120 million deal in the NBA, every cent is owed. Injuries don't change that. Decline in performance doesn't change that. The team is on the hook no matter what.

The NFL? Completely different. The majority of an NFL contract is not guaranteed. Players can be cut at almost any moment, and owners can erase millions in "paper" value with a single transaction. What players truly fight for is guaranteed money - the portion of a deal that's locked in regardless of what happens. Signing bonuses and roster bonuses make up most of it, and the rest of the so-called contract is usually smoke and mirrors.

That's why a running back with two years left on a deal might sit out. He knows the team can cut him after one bad season. He knows his guaranteed money is already spent. And he knows that one injury could erase his career earnings overnight. The holdout is leverage. Miss time, apply pressure, and force the team to put more money on the table.

Owners don't mind this setup, because the league's collective bargaining agreement tilts heavily in their favor. The NFL has had multiple work stoppages - the 1982 strike, the 1987 strike, and the 2011 lockout. Each ended with owners keeping the structure they wanted. No fully guaranteed contracts. Franchise tags to hold stars in place. A salary cap that limits player earning power. Compared to the player-friendly agreements in MLB, NBA, and NHL, the NFL's CBA reads like an owner's dream.

It's also about roster size. An NFL team carries 53 active players, plus practice squads. NBA rosters are 15 deep. MLB teams carry 26. NHL teams sit around 23. Owners argue that with so many players, they can't guarantee everyone. The truth? They don't want to. The league makes billions, but the model relies on cutting non-superstars at will, resetting deals, and limiting long-term obligations.

That's why players fight for upfront guarantees. When a quarterback signs a $200 million extension, the real number might be $110 million guaranteed. That's the only figure that matters. Everything else is negotiable, cuttable, and forgettable.

The NFLPA has pushed for years to increase security, but every round of negotiations ends with the same reality. Owners hold the cards, stars hold out, and the cycle repeats. In 2022, over 60% of all contract value in the NFL was non-guaranteed, compared to virtually 0% in the NBA.

Holdouts aren't just about greed. They're about survival. Careers are short, the money isn't real until it's guaranteed, and players know they might only get one chance to lock in life-changing security.