England vs Croatia Betting Preview - World Cup 2026 Group L Odds, Team News and Key Numbers
England vs Croatia Betting Preview - World Cup 2026 Group L Odds, Team News and Key Numbers
Eight years after Mario Mandzukic broke English hearts in Moscow, these two meet again at a World Cup - and this time it is the very first game of the group stage for both. England open their World Cup 2026 campaign against Croatia on Wednesday 17 June at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, with kick-off at 9pm UK time.
Thomas Tuchel's England did something in qualifying that no European side had ever done over a campaign of this length: eight wins from eight without conceding a single goal. 22 scored, zero against. Harry Kane closed the campaign with a brace in Tirana that took his England tally to 78 goals in 112 caps.
Croatia, for their part, barely broke stride either. Zlatko Dalic's side topped their qualifying group with seven wins and a draw, scoring 26 and conceding just four. Luka Modric, 40 years old and at AC Milan, captains his country at a fifth World Cup. Finalists in 2018, third in 2022 - writing Croatia off has been a losing position for the better part of a decade.
Bet365 has England at 1.70 to start the tournament with a win. Croatia, at 4.75, are priced as live underdogs rather than cannon fodder. Below: the full odds board, team news from both camps, the head-to-head history, and what the market pricing implies - all of it as it stood on the morning of 4 June.
Group L Schedule
| Date | Fixture | Venue | Kick-off (BST) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 17 June | England vs Croatia | AT&T Stadium, Arlington | 9:00 PM |
| Tue 23 June | England vs Ghana | Gillette Stadium, Foxborough | 9:00 PM |
| Sat 27 June | Panama vs England | MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford | 10:00 PM |
Croatia's remaining group fixtures against Ghana and Panama complete the Group L programme, which runs from 17 to 27 June.
Team News
England. Tuchel named his 26 on 22 May, and the headlines were the omissions: no Cole Palmer, no Phil Foden, no Harry Maguire, no Jarrod Bowen. Kane captains England at a third World Cup, equalling Billy Wright's record, while Jordan Henderson makes a record-equalling fourth finals appearance. The Arsenal and Crystal Palace contingent joined the Florida prep camp late after the European club finals, and England play warm-up friendlies against New Zealand (6 June) and Costa Rica (10 June) before moving to their Kansas City base on 13 June. No injury concerns have been reported in camp at the time of writing.
A note on Rio Ngumoha. Sharp-eyed readers will spot the 17-year-old Liverpool winger in bet365's player markets below. Ngumoha is not in England's 26-man squad - he is one of four young players (with Josh King, Alex Scott and Ethan Nwaneri) attached to the camp as training players, and he is eligible for the two friendlies only. Once the tournament starts, only goalkeepers can be replaced, so his sole route into this match would be an outfield replacement made before the tournament begins. We list his odds because the market lists them, but treat that line accordingly.
Croatia. Dalic named his squad on 18 May with two fitness subplots attached. Modric fractured a cheekbone in April and was selected anyway, with Dalic saying the camp expects him ready. Josko Gvardiol is back after the broken leg that threatened his tournament, and Mateo Kovacic - who missed most of the club season with Achilles trouble - also made the cut. Four players carry more than 100 caps: Modric, Ivan Perisic, Kovacic and Andrej Kramaric, who top-scored in qualifying with six.
| Player | Team | Situation |
|---|---|---|
| Luka Modric | Croatia | Fractured cheekbone in April - selected, expected to be ready |
| Josko Gvardiol | Croatia | Returned from a broken leg - selected |
| Mateo Kovacic | Croatia | Missed most of the club season (Achilles) - selected, match sharpness a question |
| Rio Ngumoha | England | Training player only - not in the 26-man squad |
Qualifying Form
Four Players to Watch
What the Managers Are Saying
Head-to-Head
This is the third major-tournament meeting between the pair in eight years, and the previous two could not have felt more different.
| Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 11 July 2018 | World Cup semi-final, Moscow | Croatia 2-1 England (aet) |
| 13 June 2021 | Euro 2020 group stage, Wembley | England 1-0 Croatia |
| 17 June 2026 | World Cup group stage, Arlington | - |
Moscow 2018 needs no introduction for either fanbase: Kieran Trippier's free kick, an hour of slow Croatian strangulation, and Mandzukic in extra time to send Croatia to their first final. Three years later England got a measure of it back on the opening weekend of Euro 2020, Raheem Sterling scoring the only goal at Wembley. The two also split a pair of Nations League meetings in late 2018. A rubber match of sorts awaits, on neutral turf, with the group lead on the line from day one.
Projected Lineups
Projections only - neither manager has named a side, and England's two warm-up friendlies may shuffle the picture.
England (4-2-3-1): Pickford; James, Stones, Guehi, Livramento; Rice, Anderson; Saka, Eze, Rashford; Kane. The main selection battle is the No 10 shirt, where Eze, Bellingham and Rogers are competing for one spot.
Croatia (4-3-3): Livakovic; Stanisic, Sutalo, Caleta-Car, Gvardiol; Modric, Kovacic, Mario Pasalic; Kramaric, Budimir, Perisic. Dalic's midfield is settled by reputation; the front line is the open question, with Petar Musa and Igor Matanovic pushing the veterans.
The Venue
AT&T Stadium in Arlington - listed as Dallas Stadium for the tournament - is the home of the NFL's Dallas Cowboys, a retractable-roof giant that holds 80,000 and can squeeze in more. Mid-June in north Texas is seriously hot, but the roof and climate control mean conditions inside should be a non-factor. The 4pm Eastern kick-off lands at 3pm local time, prime television real estate back home in both countries.
Full Odds Board
All odds from bet365, captured 4 June 2026 at 9:24 AM PT. Odds subject to change.
| Full Time Result | Odds |
|---|---|
| England | 1.70 |
| Draw | 3.75 |
| Croatia | 4.75 |
| Player to Score or Assist | Score | Assist | Score or Assist |
|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane | 2.25 | 6.00 | 1.83 |
| Ivan Toney | 2.50 | 5.00 | 1.95 |
| Ollie Watkins | 2.50 | 5.50 | 1.95 |
| Marcus Rashford | 3.50 | 4.50 | 2.25 |
| Rio Ngumoha* | 3.75 | 5.00 | 2.37 |
| Morgan Rogers | 4.33 | 4.50 | 2.40 |
*Not named in England's 26-man World Cup squad - listed in the market at the time of capture. See Team News above. Further players available on request at bet365.
| Goals Over/Under 2.5 | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 2.10 |
| Under 2.5 | 1.72 |
| Alternative Total Goals | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 1.071 | 9.00 |
| 1.5 | 1.36 | 3.20 |
| 3.5 | 4.00 | 1.25 |
| 4.5 | 8.00 | 1.083 |
| 5.5 | 17.00 | 1.025 |
| 6.5 | 34.00 | 1.005 |
| Result / Total Goals (2.5) | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| England | 2.87 | 3.60 |
| Croatia | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| Tie | 17.00 | 4.33 |
Asian Lines
| Asian Handicap | Line | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| England | -0.5, -1.0 | 1.950 |
| Croatia | +0.5, +1.0 | 1.900 |
| Goal Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0, 2.5 | 1.850 | 2.000 |
| Alternative Asian Handicap - England | Alternative Asian Handicap - Croatia | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 6.400 | +2.5 | 1.115 |
| -2.0, -2.5 | 5.900 | +2.0, +2.5 | 1.130 |
| -2.0 | 5.500 | +2.0 | 1.150 |
| -1.5, -2.0 | 3.700 | +1.5, +2.0 | 1.260 |
| -1.5 | 3.000 | +1.5 | 1.375 |
| -1.0, -1.5 | 2.600 | +1.0, +1.5 | 1.475 |
| -1.0 | 2.300 | +1.0 | 1.600 |
| -0.5 | 1.700 | +0.5 | 2.100 |
| 0.0, -0.5 | 1.500 | 0.0, +0.5 | 2.500 |
Market Features on This Match
Bet365 has tagged the major markets on this fixture as Same Game Parlay eligible, meaning selections from the result, totals and player markets can be combined into a single bet. The Full Time Result market carries Early Payout (bets on a team settle as winners if that side goes two goals ahead) and Parlay Boost, while the player markets run with Sub On Play On, which keeps score-or-assist bets alive if the player comes on as a substitute. Standard terms apply to each feature - check the conditions at bet365 before relying on any of them.
What the Market Is Saying
Strip the prices back to implied probabilities and the market's read is clear. England at 1.70 implies roughly a 59 percent chance of winning in 90 minutes; the draw at 3.75 implies about 27 percent, and Croatia at 4.75 about 21 percent, with the few points beyond 100 representing the bookmaker's margin.
The totals tell the more interesting story. Under 2.5 goals is the favourite at 1.72, and the goal line sits at 2.0/2.5 - the market expects a tight, controlled match rather than a shootout. That fits both profiles: England did not concede a qualifying goal, and Croatia's tournament identity for a decade has been suffocation first, flair second. England Under 2.5 at 3.60 being shorter than England Over 2.5 at 2.87 reverses for the favourite what the raw totals already say about the game.
The Asian handicap is the cleanest single number on the board: England at -0.5/-1.0 is priced at 1.950, essentially a coin flip on England winning by the margin of one goal splitting the line. The market believes England win this more often than not - and believes it will be close when they do.
