A Look at The Presidential Betting Odds

Published on February 13th, 2020 9:27 pm EST
Written By: Dave Manuel


If you've been following the news, you've likely heard people talk about President Trump's current odds to win re-election in 2020.

You may have heard that President Trump is -180 to win re-election. An obvious question arises - what does -180 mean? What does that signify in terms of his odds to win re-election in November?

These odds that you are seeing are called "American odds". With American odds, if there is a minus sign before a number, that means that they are a favorite to win. If they have a plus in front of their odds, that means that they are an underdog to win.

For instance, President Trump is currently a favorite to win re-election in 2020. How big of a favorite?

Well, in order to win $100 in profit betting on President Trump, you'd need to wager $180 - there is where the -180 number comes in. If there is a minus in front of the odds, that means that this is the amount that you'd need to wager in order to win $100 in profit back.

Bernie Sanders, for instance, is currently +350 to win the Presidency in November of 2020. The +350 number represents the amount of profit that you would make on Bernie Sanders if you were to bet $100 on him. So, in the case of Bernie Sanders, you'd win $350 in profit if he won the Presidency in November.

-

These odds can be helpful as it is easy to determine the implied odds of President Trump winning.

For instance, a -180 betting line on President Trump means that the betting market is currently giving him a 64.1% chance of winning in November.

For comparison's sake, Bernie Sanders is being given a 22.22% chance of winning in November, though he still has to go through the gruelling nomination process. If Bernie Sanders wins the nomination, his odds of winning in November will improve dramatically, though he will still likely be an underdog against President Trump.

-

Shortly before the Mueller Report was released, President Trump was a slight underdog to win in 2020. Since that point, however, his odds to win have steadily improved.

Though the polling numbers have Trump losing against virtually all of the potential Democratic nominees, the betting markets are telling an entirely different story.