Conor McGregor Has Slight Edge To Win on Saturday

Published on August 19th, 2016 8:08 pm EST
Successfully gambling on sports all boils down to one thing - exploiting lines that aren't properly priced to enhance value.

On Saturday night, Featherweight champion Conor McGregor will get his rematch against Nate Diaz. The fight, which will be contested at 170 pounds, is a rematch of the fight that took place at UFC 196 in which Diaz won via 2nd round submission.

The Irish population loves to gamble, plus they love to support their own. This has resulted in McGregor being the favourite when Diaz should clearly have the edge.

After all, Diaz won the first fight on short notice. Nate had only 11 days to prepare for McGregor and was literally sitting on the beach drinking beers when he got the nod for the fight. This time around, Nate has had the benefit of a full camp and is clearly looking to be in much better shape.

McGregor supporters, on the other hand, say that their fighter will be much better prepared this time around. McGregor has put in significant work against tall southpaws during his training camp, plus he has apparently dramatically enhanced his cardio.


Here is the thing - Diaz is almost certainly the better mixed martial artist, plus he is the larger and more powerful man. Given these facts, does it make sense that McGregor would be the favourite again? Of course not.

Here are the current betting odds for this fight:

Conor McGregor, 4/5
Nate Diaz, 23/18

As mentioned, betting is all about finding value, and Diaz is CLEARLY good value at 23/18. Don't believe me? Of 45 UFC fighters polled as to who they think will win this fight, 41 picked Diaz. These are actual fighters who believe that Diaz has the clear advantage.

Sure, McGregor could certainly win this fight. The odds, however, are mispriced.

If I had to choose an outcome, I would say that Diaz will win via 3rd round submission. His boxing and ground game is just too sharp, and I think that McGregor will have trouble keeping up to Nate's pace once the fight gets past the first round.

This is the fight game, so anything can happen, though Diaz is clearly the better value here.

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