Things Can Change In An Instant In Sports

Published on August 25th, 2019 3:28 pm EST
Written By: Dave Manuel

Risk management in sports betting is a serious thing to consider.  Things change. In a snap of the fingers, the prospects for the Indianapolis Colts to win the Super Bowl went from decent to practically non-existent.

Heading into the season, the Colts were one of the favourites with "sharps" to win the Super Bowl. As we mentioned yesterday, their odds improved from roughly 21/1 to 12/1 over the past couple of months, buoyed by some positive off-season moves and the realization that they were a balanced and potentially great team.

Everything quickly went off the rails, however, after Andrew Luck announced his retirement. This news was truly shocking - in fact, this was likely the most shocking retirement announcement since Barry Sanders or even Michael Jordan. After all, Luck is still just 29 years of age, and would have had at least 10 years left to play if he had remained healthy.

For Luck, however, his health was more important, and he had decided that the constant rehab from injury was too much to take.


Futures bets are inherently risky, which is why they pay out at such a large premium.

The Andrew Luck situation, however, shows just HOW risky they are. One injury and one subsequent retirement almost certainly zeroed all of the many futures bets that had been placed on Luck. The Colts suddenly went from being a good value to almost a zero. Now, depending on the book that we are looking at, the odds for the Colts to win the Super Bowl are 60/1 or even worse. Regardless of whether or not you think that the Colts can win, the fact of the matter is that the asset of a Colts' futures bet to win the Super Bowl is worth a fraction of what it was yesterday.

For this reason, many sharp bettors will spread around their futures bets so that they don't get wiped out due to one announcement. Teams like the Texans, Bears and Vikings, who were also seen by sharps as having good value, are still in the mix to win the Super Bowl.


Futures bettors, beware - there is danger lurking around every corner. This is not a game for the faint of heart.

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