Odds of Curry Failing in Quest To Win Second MVP Award Remote at Best

Published on February 29th, 2016 7:57 pm EST
Steph Curry of the Golden State Warriors is going to win his second straight MVP award this season. Of that, there is no doubt.

After all, both Curry and the Warriors are putting together a historic season that has been filled with broken records. Curry, who is averaging over 30 points per game, has savaged the NBA this season and has broken a number of records so far this year. The Golden State Warriors, on the other hand, are within reach of breaking the single season wins record that is currently held by the Chicago Bulls.

On a nightly basis, Curry has absolutely torched the opposition and left jaws hanging. For this reason, Curry will secure his second straight MVP award.


In my estimation, Curry has a less than 1% chance of NOT winning his second straight MVP award. Curry, in my opinion, would need to suffer a catastrophic injury for this to happen, while another player would have to go on an unbelievable run. Even so, Curry would still be a heavy favourite to win the award, even if he did suffer an injury.

A number of sports books agree, as Curry is currently 1/80 or 1/100 to win the MVP award. At other books, however, Curry is still just 1/10 to win the award, which means that he has implied odds of 90% of winning. In reality, his implied odds of winning are 99.9999%+. The other players in the running for the award, including Kawhi Leonard, Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, aren't even close to Curry in terms of odds to win the award.


Putting down money on an outcome that has odds of 1.10 is usually a sucker's bet, but not in this case. Even at 1.10, Steph Curry to win the NBA MVP award offers tremendous value as the implied odds of him winning the award are much, much higher.

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