Where to Bet on Tyson Fury vs Anthony Joshua - December 11 at Principality Stadium, Cardiff
Fifteen years of talking, and at last there is a date you can write down. Tyson Fury and Anthony Joshua meet on Friday, December 11, 2026, at Principality Stadium in Cardiff, live worldwide on Netflix, over twelve rounds. Every previous version of this fight died on the table - the 2021 deal was killed by an arbitration ruling, the Usyk era swallowed both men whole, and as recently as this summer the argument over the venue nearly killed it again. This one survived. The bill is printed.
The stakes grew while nobody was watching. Oleksandr Usyk - the man who beat Fury twice and Joshua twice - vacated every belt he held on June 26, and the winner in Cardiff is reported to pick up the vacant WBA super heavyweight title, per Ring Magazine. We will treat that as reported rather than gospel until the sanctioning paperwork is public, but either way, the fight does not need a belt to be the biggest all-British heavyweight match ever made.
Below is the full Bet365 board as it stands: the money line, the five-way fight outcome, method of victory for both corners, the total rounds ladder, the distance market, and the four boost cards. After the prices, the story - how both men got here, why the fight is in Wales, and what the market is quietly saying about how it ends.
The Prices: Money Line
| FIGHTER | ODDS | IMPLIED |
|---|---|---|
| Tyson Fury | 1.50 | 66.7% |
| Anthony Joshua | 2.62 | 38.2% |
Those two implied numbers add to about 104.8, which means Bet365 is holding roughly a 4.8 percent margin on this market. Strip the margin out and the book's honest opinion is about 64 percent Fury, 36 percent Joshua. That is a clear favourite, but it is nowhere near a foregone conclusion - roughly one Joshua win in every three runnings of this fight. For a man who has been knocked out cold in this decade and dropped by a tune-up opponent five months ago, 2.62 says the market still takes his one-punch case very seriously.
The Boost Cards
Bet365 has hung four pre-packaged boosts on this fight. A quick honesty note before the table: a boost is a parlay somebody else built for you. The boosted number is bigger than the original number, which is nice, but every leg still has to land, and a bigger price on a longshot combination is not automatically a good price. Read them as a menu of storylines, not a menu of value.
| CARD | LEGS | WAS | BOOSTED |
|---|---|---|---|
| AJ The Annihilator | Joshua by KO, TKO or DQ + Joshua scores 2 or more knockdowns + Under 8.5 rounds | 15.00 | 17.00 |
| Outboxed | Fury by unanimous decision + Fury scores 1 or more knockdowns | 10.50 | 12.00 |
| Fast and Furyous | Fury by KO, TKO or DQ + Under 5.5 rounds | 5.25 | 6.00 |
| AJ Payday | Fight result Joshua + Over 9.5 rounds | 5.10 | 6.00 |
Fight Outcome (5 Way)
| OUTCOME | FURY | JOSHUA |
|---|---|---|
| By KO, TKO or DQ | 2.30 | 3.60 |
| By decision or technical decision | 3.75 | 8.00 |
| Draw or technical draw | 17.00 | |
Here is the single most interesting thing on the whole board. Tyson Fury has built an entire career on winning rounds - the feints, the jab, the twelve-round chess match. And yet Fury inside the distance is priced at 2.30 while Fury on the scorecards sits out at 3.75. For possibly the first time in his career, the market's most likely single path is the Gypsy King stopping his man, not outboxing him. Whether that is a read on Fury's new lean frame or on Joshua's recent chin, the board does not say. It just prices it.
On the other side, Joshua by decision at 8.00 is the least believed realistic outcome on the card. The market thinks that if AJ wins, he does it with his hands, not with the judges - his stoppage price of 3.60 is less than half his decision price.
Method of Victory
| METHOD | FURY | JOSHUA | EITHER |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unanimous decision | 4.75 | 11.00 | 3.75 |
| Split decision | 12.00 | 23.00 | 9.50 |
| Technical knockout | 3.40 | 5.50 | 2.40 |
| Knockout | 5.00 | 8.50 | 3.60 |
| Majority decision | 23.00 | 41.00 | 19.00 |
| Technical decision | 67.00 | 67.00 | 41.00 |
| Disqualified opponent | 101.00 | 101.00 | 67.00 |
| Tie | 17.00 | ||
The shortest single method on the entire board is a technical knockout by either man at 2.40 - a referee waving it off over a stricken fighter is the ending the market considers most likely. Note the shape of the two columns: Fury's shortest route is the TKO at 3.40, Joshua's is also the TKO at 5.50, and the clean one-punch knockout is priced behind the stoppage for both men. Heavyweights this size rarely get counted out flat; they get rescued.
Total Rounds
| LINE | OVER | UNDER |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 1.02 | 19.00 |
| 2.5 | 1.05 | 11.00 |
| 3.5 | 1.11 | 6.50 |
| 4.5 | 1.18 | 4.50 |
| 5.5 | 1.28 | 3.50 |
| 6.5 | 1.40 | 2.75 |
| 7.5 | 1.57 | 2.25 |
| 8.5 | 1.72 | 2.00 |
| 9.5 | 1.90 | 1.80 |
| 10.5 | 2.10 | 1.66 |
Follow the ladder down and watch where it flips. At 8.5 rounds the Over is still the favourite at 1.72. At 9.5 the two sides nearly kiss - 1.90 against 1.80. By 10.5 the Under has taken over at 1.66. The market's centre of gravity sits around nine rounds and change: an early blowout is not the expectation, but neither is thirty-six full minutes. The shape it describes is a fight that builds and then breaks late.
Fight to Go the Distance
| OUTCOME | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Yes - the final bell sounds | 2.50 |
| No - it ends inside the distance | 1.50 |
The cleanest summary of everything above: No at 1.50 makes it roughly two chances in three that somebody does not hear the final bell. Fifty-two knockouts between them, one man dropped in his last outing, the other 38 years old with two retirements behind him. The market has done that arithmetic.
Fifteen Years of Talking
This fight has been dying on tables since the early 2010s. The closest it ever came was 2021, when both sides had actually signed - and then an arbitration ruling ordered Fury into a third Deontay Wilder fight, and the whole thing collapsed. After that, Oleksandr Usyk arrived and made the question academic by beating Joshua twice and then Fury twice. By January 2025 Fury had retired, again, and the fight everyone had waited fifteen years for looked dead for good.
Then 2026 happened. Fury came back in April, and this September the final piece fell: a date, a venue, and Netflix carrying it worldwide with the announcement summed up in five words - enough talk, time to fight. The two men share a press conference stage in London on September 30. There is nothing left to negotiate.
The Vacant Throne
Usyk is the ghost at this feast. He beat both of these men twice each, and neither ever solved him. On June 26 he vacated every belt he still held - saying, in his way, that the weather was beautiful and it was a good day to set them free - and walked off undefeated at 25-0 without retiring. The reported WBA super title on the line in Cardiff is a crown neither Briton could take from the man who owned it. It sits on an empty chair between them at last, and one of them finally gets to pick it up.
Two Roads to Cardiff
Fury's comeback has been a study in contrasts. April 11 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium: 64,500 people - more than his own Chisora fight drew there in 2022 - watched him pitch a near shutout at Arslanbek Makhmudov, 120-108 twice and 119-109, looking lighter and leaner than he had in years, with Joshua sitting ringside. Fury leaned over the ropes and called him out on the spot; Joshua stayed in his seat, because no deal had been done. Then July 24 in Pattaya, Thailand, Fury stopped Mariusz Wach in seven rounds in a fight that was not broadcast live anywhere on earth - he wanted rounds, he said, not an event. He got exactly that.
Joshua's road ran through Miami and Jeddah. On December 19 he knocked out Jake Paul in six rounds, the win that restarted his career narrative overnight. Then on July 25 - the night after Fury's Thailand outing - he met Kristian Prenga, a 20-1 puncher with every win by knockout, and got dropped. He climbed off the canvas and stopped Prenga anyway. You can read that evening two ways, and the odds board above shows the market reading it both ways at once: 2.62 respects the finish, and the 1.50 on the fight not going the distance respects the knockdown.
The Roof
The venue was the last fight before the fight. The American side of the promotion wanted Madison Square Garden and the New York money; Eddie Hearn and Joshua held out for Britain; Fury, at one point, threatened to look at other options entirely. The compromise was Cardiff - not Wembley, which will annoy the purists, but the Principality Stadium brings the one thing no other British venue can offer a December heavyweight fight: a roof that closes. Seventy-eight thousand seats and no weather.
Joshua knows the building. He is 2-0 in the building - the Carlos Takam defence in October 2017 and the Joseph Parker unification in March 2018, both in front of crowds near eighty thousand. Fury has never boxed in Wales. Make of that what you will; the market clearly has not made much of it.
Where to Watch and What Is Still Unannounced
Netflix carries the fight worldwide. As of the time stamp above, the start time and the undercard have not been announced. That is worth knowing before you plan the evening: the main event timing for a UK stadium show in December will matter, and the supporting card could add real quality once the promoters fill it. We will take the page through fight week as details land.
How to Get Started at Bet365
- Open an account at Bet365 - registration takes a few minutes and requires identity verification.
- Check the welcome offer shown at registration. For new UK customers it is Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets; the significant terms are on the card at the top of this page and at Bet365.
- Make a qualifying deposit and find the fight under Boxing.
- Set a budget before fight night and stick to it. The final bell is a better ending than a bad ledger.
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