How Buffalo Lost McDavid, Then Matthews

Published on October 11th, 2025 3:35 pm EST
Written By: Dave Manuel


Buffalo tore it down to the studs. Target the top pick. Stack the odds. In 2015, they did exactly that. Worst record. Maximum lottery share. The McDavid draft. And the ball still bounced away.

The 2014-15 Sabres finished 30th. That delivered the top lottery odds under the then-current rules. Buffalo held 20 percent for first overall. Edmonton sat at 11.5 percent. The draw flipped the board. Edmonton won and took Connor McDavid at No. 1. Buffalo picked second and took Jack Eichel. Eichel was elite. McDavid was generational. The crown piece of the rebuild slipped on lottery night.

A year later, Buffalo was back in the drum, but not with the top odds. In 2016, Toronto held the pole at 20 percent. Buffalo entered with 9.5 percent. The Leafs won and took Auston Matthews. Buffalo dropped to No. 8 and selected Alexander Nylander. That pick never returned value.

That is the sting. In 2015, Buffalo had the best odds and missed McDavid. In 2016, they did not have the best odds and still missed Matthews. Two straight years. Two generational centers. Zero first overall picks.

The downstream impact was obvious. McDavid became the best player on the planet and led Edmonton to the Stanley Cup Final twice. Matthews became the engine of Toronto's rise, a 60-goal force who stabilized a decade of chaos. Buffalo got strong play from Eichel but no deep run, a surgery standoff, a trade, and another reset.

The Sabres have drafted real pieces since. Rasmus Dahlin at No. 1 in 2018. Owen Power at No. 1 in 2021. Building blocks, no question. But 2015-2016 was the 1C jackpot window. Hit either draw and the arc changes.

The record is simple. 2015: worst record, best odds, McDavid goes elsewhere. 2016: not the best odds, Matthews to Toronto, Buffalo at 8 taking Nylander. Two lotteries. Two franchise-altering talents. One long road back.