Where To Bet on UFC 328
Mixed martial arts is one of the world's fastest growing sports, as the sport has made tremendous inroads into new markets such as Australia, Sweden and Canada over the past decade.Betting on the UFC has proven to be very popular with sports bettors, as a thorough knowledge of the sport can give a person an advantage over the bookmakers, especially when it comes to preliminary card fights. A gambler with a thorough knowledge of preliminary card fighters can use this information to exploit some pretty wildly priced lines.
There are multiple ways that people can bet on the UFC, including outright winner, round betting and method of finish props. Lines can move wildly shortly after a fight is announced and during the time between weigh-ins and when the fight takes place. In addition, a fighter's popularity can dramatically swing a line, as evidenced by the tremendous amount of wagering that takes place on every Conor McGregor fight. These are all things to keep in mind when you look to place your bets.
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Gamblers have a wide assortment of different things that they can bet on in a UFC fight, including:
1. Who will win.
2. How long the fight will last.
3. How the fight will end.
4. Which round the fight will end in.
5. Who will land the most significant strikes.
The draw of the UFC is that you really don't know what could happen on any given night, which creates the potential for some very big underdogs winning. This is obviously appealing to gamblers.
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vs
STRICKLAND
- Record
- 15-0
- Nationality
- Chechnya / Sweden
- Style
- Grappling / Wrestler-Striker
- UFC Title Defences
- Reigning MW Champion
- Notable Wins
- du Plessis, Burns, Holland, Usman
- Bet365 Odds
- 1.18
- Status
- Former Middleweight Champion
- Nationality
- United States
- Style
- High-Volume Pressure Striker
- Title History
- Won belt from Adesanya, lost to du Plessis
- Notable Wins
- Adesanya, Imavov, Hall, Whittaker
- Bet365 Odds
- 5.00
Khamzat Chimaev vs Sean Strickland Betting Preview Odds & Tips
There is a version of this fight that goes exactly as the 1.18 price suggests. Chimaev shoots early, Strickland can't stop it, and we spend five rounds watching the most dangerous grappler in the middleweight division do exactly what he does to everyone. That version exists. Bet365 thinks it is the overwhelmingly likely one. At 1.18 on any fighter they are probably right about the direction of the fight - they are just not necessarily right about the price.
The reason Strickland is worth taking seriously at 5.00 is the same reason he was worth taking seriously against Adesanya - he is not a normal fighter, and the metrics that suggest he should lose do not always apply once the door closes. He throws more punches than almost anyone in the division. He walks forward. He does not hesitate. Against Chimaev's grappling, that pressure either keeps Chimaev off him or it does not. There is not much middle ground.
This is a genuinely fascinating stylistic match-up set against an uncomfortable price reality. The play here is not necessarily on the winner - it is on finding the angle within the fight that pays properly. We'll get into that.
Tale of the Tape
| Stat | Khamzat Chimaev | Sean Strickland |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 15-0 | Former Champion |
| Nationality | Chechnya / Sweden | United States |
| Fighting Style | Wrestling / Grappling / Striking | High-Volume Pressure Boxing |
| UFC Losses | None | Former champion, lost title to du Plessis |
| Primary Weapon | Takedowns / Ground control | Jab / Volume / Pressure |
| Chin | Untested at top level | Excellent - never finished by strikes in UFC |
| Bet365 Odds | 1.18 | 5.00 |
The 1.18 tells you everything about how the betting market rates Chimaev's chances. Fifteen fights, fifteen wins, and a list of defeated opponents that includes Dricus du Plessis, Kamaru Usman, Gilbert Burns and Kevin Holland. He is not just undefeated - he has not been in genuine danger in the majority of those fights. The way he obliterated the division's best wrestlers with his own wrestling is the most telling statistic of his career. Burns tried to out-grapple him. It did not work. Usman tried to out-wrestle him. That did not work either.
The question people ask about Chimaev is whether his chin is what it appears to be. He has not been seriously hurt at the top level because he tends to close distance quickly and remove the standing fight as a variable. Against a pressure striker like Strickland who throws in volume and does not need to load up to land - that question might actually get answered on Saturday night.
If Chimaev wrestles Strickland to the mat and keeps him there, this fight ends the way the odds say it will. He is the best top-position fighter in the division. On the mat, Strickland has no answer. The issue is getting there, which means eating Strickland's output on the way in. At 1.18 you are not getting paid to worry about that - you are just backing him to get it done.
I will be honest - 5.00 on Strickland is not obviously wrong. This is the same fighter who walked into a fight against Israel Adesanya as a sizeable underdog and won a clear decision. His style is awkward. He is relentless. He does not give you clean looks because he is always moving forward and always throwing. For a grappler trying to shoot, that constant output is exactly the kind of interference that disrupts timing.
Strickland's takedown defence is not elite on paper, but his instincts in the clinch are good and his ability to scramble back to his feet has improved considerably over his career. The question is whether those instincts are good enough against a wrestler of Chimaev's calibre. Chimaev does not just shoot clean doubles - he works from the clinch, from dirty boxing range, from positions where opponents can't set their base properly. That is a harder problem than defending a telegraphed takedown.
Where Strickland wins this fight is by throwing enough volume in the first two rounds to establish a striking pace that Chimaev does not want to keep up with, and staying mobile enough to avoid giving him clean entry points. If he can keep it standing for fifteen minutes, the door opens. At 5.00, that scenario pays you for your trouble.
Recent Form
Full UFC 328 Main Card Odds
| Fighter | Bout | Odds (Bet365) |
|---|---|---|
| Khamzat Chimaev | MW Championship - Main Eventvs Sean Strickland | 1.18 |
| Sean Strickland | MW Championship - Main Eventvs Khamzat Chimaev | 5.00 |
| Tatsuro Taira | Flyweight - Co-Mainvs Joshua Van | 1.55 |
| Joshua Van | Flyweight - Co-Mainvs Tatsuro Taira | 2.50 |
| Alexander Volkov | Heavyweight - Main Cardvs Waldo Cortes-Acosta | 1.64 |
| Waldo Cortes-Acosta | Heavyweight - Main Cardvs Alexander Volkov | 2.30 |
| Sean Brady | Welterweight - Main Cardvs Joaquin Buckley | 1.52 |
| Joaquin Buckley | Welterweight - Main Cardvs Sean Brady | 2.60 |
| King Green | Lightweight - Main Cardvs Jeremy Stephens | 1.33 |
| Jeremy Stephens | Lightweight - Main Cardvs King Green | 3.40 |
| Bogdan Guskov | Light Heavyweight - Main Cardvs Jan Blachowicz | 1.66 |
| Jan Blachowicz | Light Heavyweight - Main Cardvs Bogdan Guskov | 2.25 |
Matchup Analysis
The central tension in this fight is range vs. control. Strickland needs the fight to stay on the feet where his volume and footwork give him a chance. Chimaev needs to get his hands on Strickland - whether that is a clinch, a single leg, or a trip from the dirty boxing range - and convert that into ground control. Those are two very different games and it genuinely is not clear-cut which one wins out.
Chimaev's level changes are elite. He does not telegraph his shots the way a conventional wrestler does. He transitions from striking to grappling within combinations, which gives opponents almost no time to sprawl properly. Against Strickland specifically, who likes to be in punching range and does not circle much, Chimaev is going to get opportunities. The question is whether Strickland can make him pay enough in the standing exchanges to discourage him from shooting, or at least to rack up enough output to matter on the scorecards if the grappling defence holds.
Strickland's chin is worth noting here. He has not been stopped by strikes in the UFC. He absorbs shots and keeps moving forward. That matters against a fighter like Chimaev, who generates genuine power but does not have a long list of knockout wins at the top level. If Strickland eats a heavy shot and does not go down - and based on his history that is a realistic outcome - this becomes a very different fight in rounds two and three.
Key Undercard Fights
| Bout | Division | Position | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Taira (1.55) vs Van (2.50) | Flyweight | Co-Main | Taira is a legitimate flyweight contender with elite grappling. Van is capable and durable but steps in as the underdog. Taira at 1.55 is a reasonable favourite here. Taira to finish is the more interesting price if available. He tends not to just win - he tends to impose. |
| Volkov (1.64) vs Cortes-Acosta (2.30) | Heavyweight | Main Card | Volkov is experienced and has real knockout power. Cortes-Acosta is an emerging name with heavy hands and an aggressive style. Competitive at heavyweight where the power equalises things. The 2.30 on Cortes-Acosta has some appeal given what a single right hand can do at this weight class. |
| Brady (1.52) vs Buckley (2.60) | Welterweight | Main Card | Brady's elite grappling against Buckley's highlight-reel striking power. Brady is the methodical choice, Buckley is the entertainment pick. One clean Buckley left hand changes everything. Buckley at 2.60 is the fight-ending upside play on this card. He does not need many chances. |
| Blachowicz (2.25) vs Guskov (1.66) | Light Heavyweight | Main Card | Guskov is the favourite here which tells you something about where Blachowicz's stock sits right now. Blachowicz still carries one-punch knockout power and has championship pedigree. Blachowicz at 2.25 represents the name-value price discrepancy that sometimes pays. Worth considering. |
The honest take is that Chimaev is going to win this fight. That is probably what happens. But 1.18 is not a bet - it is a cheque you are handing over in exchange for a small amount of money back. If you want to be on the right side of this event, find a specific method market on Chimaev or take a small position on Strickland at 5.00 as genuine value rather than a fantasy pick. Strickland beat Adesanya clean. He knows how to win title fights when the room expects him to lose. That's not nothing at five-to-one. Our lean is a small Strickland play for value, with the understanding that Chimaev likely wins and that is fine - 5.00 means you only need it to hit once in five tries to break even.
Where To Bet on UFC
For all of my UFC betting, I use Bet365, which I have been happily placing MMA bets with since 2011. To sign up, simply click on the link at the top of this article to get started.
