Uruguay Has a Very Slight Edge to Win

Published on June 21st, 2014 5:41 pm EST

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Next week will feature some very exciting matches, including Croatia vs Mexico, Holland vs Chile and Italy vs Uruguay.

The Italy vs Uruguay match will decide which team joins Costa Rica in moving on from Group D. A win or tie for Italy and they are through; a win for Uruguay and they will move forward. Despite having the same record in tournament play, Italy has a better goal differential so they would move through with a draw.

Here are the odds for Tuesday's match between Italy and Uruguay:

Italy, 2.80
Draw, 3.30
Uruguay, 2.75

As you can see, this is about as close as you can possibly get. Uruguay has a VERY slight edge but it's still virtually even.

Again, Italy has the advantage in that they can play for a draw, while Uruguay MUST win.

The oddsmakers are expecting a close game on Tuesday, as evidenced by this over/under line:

Goals Under 2.5, 1.75
Goals Over 2.5, 2.05

The draw no bet odds are identical:

Italy, 1.83
Uruguay, 1.83

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If these two teams had played in the first game of the tournament, Italy would have had the advantage. Luis Suarez, however, returned to his side after missing the first game of the tournament, and his impact was immediately felt as scoring two goals against England. Suarez's impact was obvious, as Uruguay ended up winning 2-1.

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This should be a fantastic game - who will go through?

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