From Braddock to Buster Douglas to Andy Ruiz: The Longshots Who Beat the Price

This is the bottom of the meter, and it may stay there forever. Tyson had knocked out almost everyone in front of him, the fight was widely treated as a tune-up before a showdown with Evander Holyfield, and most Las Vegas books did not bother to post a moneyline at all. They offered props on which round Tyson would end it instead.

Douglas got up from an eighth-round knockdown and stopped Tyson in the tenth. Tyson's corner was so unprepared for a real fight that it had no ice bag or endswell for his closing eye, and worked on it with a latex glove filled with water. The Mirage wrote one Tyson ticket for $168,000 to win $4,000. Nobody came back to collect it.

Ruiz got the fight on roughly a month's notice after Jarrell Miller failed drug tests, and the market treated him like what he looked like on paper: a late replacement for a champion making his American debut. One book reported 92 percent of tickets and 96 percent of the money on Joshua. A Nevada bettor put $100,000 on him to win $5,000.

Joshua dropped Ruiz in the third and then got knocked down four times himself before the stoppage in the seventh. Ruiz became the first heavyweight champion of Mexican heritage. Joshua won the rematch six months later in Saudi Arabia, but the first fight is the one on this list, and it is the closest anyone has come to Tokyo.

Lewis arrived late to altitude, fought at five in the morning local time so HBO could show it on a Saturday night in America, and had spent part of his camp around the filming of Ocean's Eleven while talks for a Tyson fight went on in the background. He was ahead on all three cards after four rounds.

Then one right hand in the fifth ended it. Larry Merchant said on the broadcast that Lewis had drowned in Ocean's Eleven. Lewis knocked Rahman out in the rematch that November and took his belts back, which is the usual postscript for this kind of night.

Sanders was a 37-year-old southpaw who had boxed only twice in three years, and this was supposed to be the first fight of a new HBO deal for Klitschko. The market gave him about one chance in twenty.

He needed less than two rounds. Sanders put Klitschko down four times in two rounds with fast, heavy left hands, and anyone who had taken the long price with a UK bookmaker had a very good night. Klitschko went on to one of the longest title reigns in heavyweight history, which is exactly why this loss still looks so strange on his record.

Chavez came in with 89 wins, one draw and no losses, one of the great unbeaten runs in the history of the sport. Randall was a solid professional, and the market saw nothing more than that.

Randall became the first man to put Chavez on the canvas, and he won a split decision. Chavez was also docked points for low blows, which mattered on the cards. Randall is the only fighter outside the heavyweights in the top half of this list, and his win is a useful reminder that a long price is not only a heavyweight thing. It is just rarer when one punch cannot settle it.

This is the clearest example of the number the legend remembers not being the number most people bet. The 25-1 was real, but it was the opener. By fight time Tyson had settled around 1/10, which still gave Holyfield less than a one-in-ten chance, and some in the media openly feared for Holyfield's health.

Holyfield did not run. He stood in the center of the ring, took Tyson's best, gave it back harder, and the referee stopped it in the eleventh. The rematch the next summer is remembered for other reasons.

The Cinderella Man. Braddock had lost so often in the late 1920s and early 1930s that he gave up the ring, worked on the docks and went on relief to feed his family through the Depression. When he got a title shot, Baer treated it as an easy payday.

Braddock boxed carefully for fifteen rounds and took a clear decision. His 10-1 stood for decades as the benchmark for a heavyweight title longshot, which is why Douglas at 37-1 was so far off the charts in 1990 that almost no book would print it.

Spinks was an Olympic gold medalist in only his eighth professional fight. Ali was fading, but he was still Ali, and the market could not see a novice taking the heavyweight championship from him.

Spinks won the last three rounds on all three judges' cards and took a split decision. It made him the only man ever to take the title from Ali in the ring, since Ali's other defeats came in non-title fights or with Ali as the challenger. Ali won the rematch seven months later.

Gonzalez was the pound-for-pound king, unbeaten in 46 fights and a four-division champion. Sor Rungvisai put him down in the first round and fought him to a standstill for twelve, while also losing a point for head butts.

The majority decision went to the Thai, and plenty of ringside observers thought Gonzalez deserved it. That debate does not change the ticket. Sor Rungvisai removed any doubt six months later by knocking Gonzalez out in four.

Liston was the most feared heavyweight of his time, and Clay was a loud young Olympic champion most writers expected to get hurt. The price reflected that.

Clay was too fast, and Liston did not come out for the seventh round. The fighter who would soon become Muhammad Ali appears twice on this list: once here as the longshot, and once as the fallen favorite against Spinks.

By the market's numbers this was the mildest upset on the list, but it rattled the pound-for-pound rankings. Mosley was considered one of the best fighters in the world.

Forrest used his height and reach, dropped Mosley twice in the second round and won a clear unanimous decision. It is a good example of why a -400 favorite is not a sure thing: the market was saying Forrest would win this fight roughly one time in five or six.

Here is the upset the price did not see as an upset at all. Foreman was 45, and critics called the fight a joke, but his name and his punch kept the line short.

He was losing on the cards until one right hand in the tenth made him the oldest heavyweight champion in history. It is on this list as a warning in the other direction: some of the most famous shocks were not long prices, and the meter is the honest way to tell the difference.