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THEKING
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Day
Tuesday
Time
17:20
Grade
Novices' Handicap
Distance
3m 6f
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National Hunt Chase 2026: Where To Bet?
Race Details:
Date: 10 March 2026
Grade: 2
Open To: -
Track: Turf
Length: -
Location: United Kingdom
National Hunt Chase 2026: Cheltenham Festival Betting Preview
The Festival's Oldest Race is Barely a Year Into Its New Life, and Nobody Knows What to Expect
Tuesday, 10 March 2026 | 5:20 PM | Cheltenham Racecourse, Prestbury Park, Gloucestershire
Novices' Handicap Chase | 3 Miles 6 Furlongs (3m 5f 212y) | Old Course | 23 Fences | 5yo+ | Rating 0-145
The National Hunt Chase closes out the opening day of the Cheltenham Festival and it does so in the middle of an identity crisis. First run in 1860, this is the oldest race at Cheltenham by a comfortable margin, predating the Gold Cup by 64 years and the Champion Hurdle by 67. For more than a century and a half, it was the Amateur Riders' Grand National, a marathon test of stamina and nerve reserved for gentleman jockeys and the kind of horse who looked at three miles and asked for more. Tiger Roll won it in 2017 at 16/1 before going on to win back-to-back Grand Nationals. Native River was runner-up in 2016 before landing the Gold Cup. Minella Rocco, Galvin, Corbetts Cross: the roll of honour reads like a draft list for the staying chase elite.
Then, in 2025, they changed everything. The race was stripped of its amateur-only restriction, opened to professional jockeys, downgraded from a conditions race to a novices' handicap with a ceiling rating of 145, and formally renamed the Princess Royal National Hunt Chase in honour of Princess Anne. The move was designed to address years of dwindling field sizes and to push the genuine staying stars back toward the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase on Wednesday, where they arguably belonged. Haiti Couleurs won the first renewal of the new format in 2025 for Rebecca Curtis and Ben Jones, beating Doyen Quest by four and a half lengths at 4.50 joint favourite. It was a perfectly competent race. It just did not feel like the same one.
The 2026 renewal is therefore only the second running under these rules, and that creates genuine uncertainty for anyone trying to find the winner. Every historical trend, every trainer pattern, every jockey record from the previous 165 years comes with an asterisk the size of Cleeve Hill. The amateur-only data is irrelevant. The conditions-race data is irrelevant. The field profile is different. The type of horse who runs is different. Even the pace of the race may be different now that professionals are setting the tempo rather than amateurs who were often just trying to stay on. What remains is the distance (three miles and six furlongs), the course (Old Course, 23 fences), and the basic question: can this horse stay, jump, and handle Cheltenham?
The Ante-Post Market
Time Stamp: Sunday, February 16, 2026, 12:00 PM ET
Odds Subject to Change
Source: Bet365
Backmersackme 6.00 | Now Is The Hour 7.00 | Soldier In Milan 12.00 | Wendigo 21.00 | Down Memory Lane 17.00 | Regent's Stroll 21.00
The market is currently headed by two Irish-trained horses, which should surprise nobody. Irish trainers won eight of the nine renewals before the format change in 2025, and their dominance of staying novice chasers shows no sign of abating under the new rules. The market will shift considerably once the handicap entries are published and connections start revealing whether their horses are actually going here or heading to the Brown Advisory, the Albert Bartlett, or the Ultima instead.
Backmersackme: DRF Winner for the Mullins You Forget About
Backmersackme has surged to the head of the market after winning the Grade 3 O'Driscolls Irish Whiskey Leopardstown Handicap Chase at the Dublin Racing Festival on February 1st. Trained by Emmet Mullins, the man who saddled The Shunter to win the 2021 Festival Plate and whose uncle Willie needs no introduction, Backmersackme arrived at Leopardstown with solid handicap form and left it looking like a horse with a serious Cheltenham target.
Emmet Mullins said afterwards that his charge had improved and pointed to the strength of the form, noting that the runner-up had gone on to frank the level and that horses from that form line were heading to the Irish Grand National. Jockey Sean Bowen, the reigning British champion, described how he had let the horse find his own rhythm before sneaking into the race at the third last and pulling clear from there. The performance had the hallmarks of a well-handicapped horse who has more to give, which is exactly the type that thrives in Cheltenham's staying novice handicaps.
The DRF form tie is significant. Grade 1 winners at the Dublin Racing Festival have a strong record at Cheltenham, and while Backmersackme's win came in a Grade 3, the pattern of Irish horses sharpened at Leopardstown in early February and delivered at Cheltenham in mid-March is well established. At around 6.00, the market is saying that Backmersackme is the most likely winner, but the price is short enough to suggest that a significant chunk of the value has already been taken.
Now Is The Hour: The Previous Market Leader With an Age Problem
Before the DRF, Now Is The Hour was favourite for this race, and Gavin Cromwell's eight-year-old still holds a prominent position at around 7.00. The staying chaser won at the Cheltenham November Meeting, beating Java Point by a length, and followed that with an excellent second behind Haiti Couleurs over an extended three miles and one furlong in mid-December. His course form is proven and his stamina is beyond question.
The concern is his age. Seven-year-olds have dominated this race in its various formats, with eight of the eleven winners between 2015 and 2025 being that age. Now Is The Hour is eight, which puts him slightly outside the sweet spot. In the old amateur format, older horses sometimes struggled because the race demanded a combination of raw staying power and the agility to handle the Cheltenham fences at a tempo set by less experienced riders. In the new professional format, age may be less of a disadvantage because the pace is more honest and mistakes are fewer. But until we have more data from the new-format race, the age trend is the best guide we have, and it is not kind to Now Is The Hour.
Cromwell, of course, is a masterful Festival trainer. He won the 2025 Gold Cup with Inothewayurthinkin and has repeatedly placed horses at Cheltenham at prices that make pre-race dismissals look foolish. If Now Is The Hour turns up, he will have been specifically aimed at this race, and Cromwell does not bring horses to the Festival to make up the numbers.
Wendigo: Sam Turner's 33/1 Fancy and a Challow Form Tie
Betfair's Sam Turner made Wendigo his ante-post pick for this race in January, and his argument was compelling enough to warrant attention. Trained by Jamie Snowden, the seven-year-old was runner-up in last year's Challow Hurdle and already has Festival pedigree courtesy of a fine run in the 2025 Albert Bartlett where he was nearly brought down two from home. He ticks the age box, the stamina box, and the Cheltenham experience box.
His most recent chase start was a third-place finish in the Kauto Star Novices' Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day behind Kitzbuhel. Turner argued that Wendigo hated the fast ground and sharp track at Kempton and that his finishing speed figure of nearly 110 percent was the best of the race. The overall speed figure was comparable with past Brown Advisory winners, suggesting the race was genuinely run and Wendigo merely found the conditions against him. Three miles around Cheltenham on softer ground should suit him significantly better.
At around 21.00, Wendigo is a proper each-way price in a race that historically produces its share of surprises. Turner described him as "the likeable grinder who is prepared to run through a brick wall," and that is exactly the type of horse this marathon distance demands.
Soldier In Milan: Another Irish Raider at a Workable Price
Soldier In Milan has been supported at around 12.00 and represents an Irish yard with the kind of quiet competence that often succeeds at the Festival when the spotlight is elsewhere. The ante-post market for the National Hunt Chase tends to be shaped by connections' intentions as much as form, and the fact that Soldier In Milan is being backed suggests that his yard sees this as a genuine target rather than a hopeful entry.
The Format Change: What We Do Not Know
The biggest story in this race is not any individual horse but the race itself. The 2025 renewal was won by Haiti Couleurs, a 4.50 joint favourite who had been aimed specifically at the old National Hunt Chase before the format change was announced and simply transferred across to the new version. The race attracted a bigger field than in recent years and was run at a more honest pace, but one renewal is not enough data to draw meaningful conclusions about what the new race rewards.
In theory, the handicap format should produce more competitive fields and more unpredictable results. The rating ceiling of 145 means the very best staying novices will bypass this race entirely in favour of the Brown Advisory, leaving behind horses who are talented enough to be competitive but not quite talented enough for graded company. That is the classic profile of a good Cheltenham handicap horse: one who has improvement to come, is well treated by the assessor, and thrives in the cauldron of a big-field race.
In practice, we do not yet know whether the race will attract genuine staying handicappers or whether it will become a dumping ground for horses who cannot get into anything else. The early entries suggest the former, with several classy performers holding entries, but the final field will depend on which connections choose this race over the Ultima, the Kim Muir, or the Brown Advisory.
Trends Worth Noting (With Caveats)
Time Stamp: Sunday, February 16, 2026, 12:00 PM ET
Odds Subject to Change
Source: Bet365
While the old trends data must be treated with extreme caution given the format change, some observations from the race's longer history may still apply to the distance and course.
Previous Cheltenham form is essential over this trip. Nine of the winners between 2013 and 2025 had run at Cheltenham before. The undulations, the hill, the noise of the crowd and the sheer physical demands of three and a half miles around Prestbury Park are not things you can simulate anywhere else. First-time Cheltenham runners in staying chases are at a genuine disadvantage.
Seven-year-olds have dominated, taking eight of eleven winners since 2015. This trend makes sense for novice chasers: old enough to have the experience and physical maturity to handle 23 fences over this trip, young enough to still be improving. Backmersackme and Wendigo both fit this age profile. Now Is The Hour, at eight, sits just outside it.
Irish trainers have owned this race historically. Gordon Elliott and Willie Mullins won four each of the nine renewals before 2025, and Emmet Mullins (The Shunter) has already shown that the wider Mullins family knows how to win at the Festival in handicap company. Haiti Couleurs broke the Irish streak in 2025 for Welsh trainer Rebecca Curtis, but the balance of staying novice talent remains heavily weighted toward Ireland.
Favourites have a poor record. Only two won in the last decade under the old format (Gaillard Du Mesnil in 2023 and Back In Focus in 2013), with prices of 16/1, 14/1 and 12/1 all featuring in recent years. Whether this pattern persists in the handicap format is unknown, but the nature of a handicap suggests it should be even harder for the favourite to win.
The Verdict
This is a race to approach with humility. The format change means the historical trends are unreliable, the market is shaped by intentions that have not yet been confirmed, and several of the leading fancies hold entries in multiple races. The final declarations will determine who actually lines up, and the picture could look dramatically different in three weeks' time.
That said, Backmersackme at 6.00 has the strongest current form after his DRF win and comes from a yard that knows how to land a Festival handicap. If he turns up, he should run a big race, though the price is tight for a race with so many unknowns. The better value may lie further down the market.
Wendigo at 21.00 each way is the play that appeals most at this stage. He has the age profile (seven), the Cheltenham experience (Albert Bartlett run in 2025), the stamina pedigree (Challow form), and a trainer in Jamie Snowden who has deliberately targeted this race as his sole Cheltenham aim. Sam Turner's endorsement at a bigger price adds confidence, and the step up in trip on softer ground should bring significant improvement from the Kempton run. In a race where the favourite's record is poor and the format is still finding its feet, a grinder at a big price is exactly the type of bet that these Festival-closing marathons were made for.
Now Is The Hour at 7.00 offers Cromwell's Festival expertise and proven Cheltenham course form, though the age trend is a mark against him. Soldier In Milan at 12.00 warrants monitoring as declarations approach.
The honest advice is to wait. The handicap entries are published this week and the weights will follow shortly after. Once we know who is actually heading here and what marks they are running off, the market will crystallise. Until then, pencil in Wendigo and Backmersackme, watch the entries closely, and remember that this is the seventh and final race on the opening day of the Cheltenham Festival. By the time they jump off at 5:20 PM, most punters will already know whether their day has been a winner or a disaster. That emotional backdrop is exactly how 21/1 shots win staying handicap chases.
Quick Reference: Key Odds
Time Stamp: Sunday, February 16, 2026, 12:00 PM ET
Odds Subject to Change
Source: Bet365
Backmersackme 6.00 | Trainer: Emmet Mullins | Jockey: TBC
Now Is The Hour 7.00 | Trainer: Gavin Cromwell | Jockey: TBC
Soldier In Milan 12.00 | Trainer: TBC | Jockey: TBC
Down Memory Lane 17.00 | Trainer: TBC | Jockey: TBC
Wendigo 21.00 | Trainer: Jamie Snowden | Jockey: Gavin Sheehan
Regent's Stroll 21.00 | Trainer: TBC | Jockey: TBC
2025 National Hunt Chase Result
1st Haiti Couleurs (4.50) - Rebecca Curtis / Ben Jones
2nd Doyen Quest - Distance: 4½L
Last 5 Winners
2025: Haiti Couleurs 4.50 (7/2jf) - Rebecca Curtis
2024: Corbetts Cross 4.50 (7/2) - Emmet Mullins
2023: Gaillard Du Mesnil 3.50 (5/2f) - Willie Mullins
2022: Stattler 5.00 (4/1) - Willie Mullins
2021: Galvin 4.50 (7/2) - Gordon Elliott
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