Oddsmakers Have Contest Deadlocked Heading Into Second Leg on Monday

Published on November 11th, 2017 6:39 pm EST
Written By: Dave Manuel

Italian defender, Leonardo Bonucci, dribbling the ball wearing the home blue national side kit.  Year is 2017. Two of the UEFA World Cup qualifying matches are all but over (Croatia v Greece, Northern Ireland v Switzerland), though Italy v Sweden is deadlocked in the eyes of the bookmakers heading into Monday's second leg.

The first match earlier this week at the Friends Arena in Stockholm, Sweden saw Sweden pull off the 1-0 win. This was an especially troubling result for Italy, as they were unable to muster any away goals. If Sweden is able to score even one goal on Monday, Italy will have a very tough time of qualifying for the World Cup, which would be a shocking result.

Italy has the advantage for Monday's match, as evidenced by these odds:

Italy, 1.57
Draw, 4.33
Sweden, 8.00

The two sides, however, are perfectly even to qualify at this point:

Sweden to Qualify for World Cup, 1.91
Italy to Qualify for World Cup, 1.91

It seems impossible to imagine that Italy could actually miss out on the World Cup, given their history as one of football's super powers, though this is where we currently stand.

Here are the five likeliest outcomes of Monday's match:

Italy 1-0, 5.00
Italy 2-0, 6.00
Draw 1-1, 7.5
Draw 0-0, 8.00
Italy 2-1, 9.00

Let's break down these five results and what they would mean for the World Cup hopes of both clubs.

A 1-0 result for Italy would send the match into extra time.

A 2-0 result for Italy would send the Italian side to the World Cup.

A 1-1 draw would send Sweden through to the World Cup.

A 0-0 draw would send Sweden through to the World Cup.

A 2-1 win for Italy would send Sweden through to the World Cup via away goals for Sweden.

As you can see, of the three likeliest scenarios for Monday's game, three would send Sweden to the World Cup, while just one would see Italy advance.


Here are the five likeliest goal scorers for Monday's match:

Andrea Belotti, 1.95
Ciro Immobile, 1.83
Eder Citadin Martins, 2.62
Simone Zaza, 2.87
Manolo Gabbiadini, 3.25

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