UFC 328 Betting Preview: Khamzat Chimaev vs Sean Strickland Odds, Analysis & Pick

The Tricolore won't be here. Neither will Adesanya, Du Plessis, or Pereira. But on Saturday May 9 at the Prudential Center in Newark, the UFC middleweight division gets the most personally venomous title fight it has produced in years. Khamzat Chimaev defending the strap for the first time. Sean Strickland trying to take it back. And about four years of gym beef finally getting paid out in front of a sold-out arena.

Let me say upfront: the bookmakers think this is over before it starts. Chimaev is sitting at 1.18 on the moneyline at Bet365. Strickland is the underdog at 5.00.

Source: Bet365 | Time Stamp: 27 April 2026 | Odds subject to change. 18+ only.

That's a wider line than Adesanya-vs-Strickland was at UFC 293. Which, if you remember September 2023, didn't end the way the bookmakers thought it would.

THE FIGHT SETUP

Chimaev (15-0, 9-0 UFC) won the belt in August 2025 by absolutely dismantling Dricus Du Plessis at UFC 319. We're not exaggerating when we call it one of the most lopsided title fights in UFC history. Chimaev landed 529 total strikes (a UFC single-fight record, breaking Max Holloway's 447 from the Kattar fight), completed 12 of 17 takedowns, and controlled Du Plessis on the canvas for 21 minutes and 40 seconds out of 25 available. The judges scored it 50-44 across the board. Du Plessis, to his credit, smiled through it and admitted afterward that the man has "incredible control on the top." That's a polite way of saying he got steamrolled.

Strickland (30-7, 17-7 UFC) is the former champion who upset Israel Adesanya at UFC 293, lost the belt to Du Plessis in his first defense at UFC 297, lost the rematch at UFC 312, and then finished Anthony Hernandez via TKO at 2:23 of the third round on 21 February 2026 in Houston. That win gave him a streak of one. The UFC then leapfrogged him over surging contender Nassourdine Imavov (five-fight win streak) for this title shot, mostly because Strickland talks more and the fight sells better. Sports-King's Note: that's not a knock, that's just how the matchmaking works in 2026.

THE BACKSTORY THE ODDS DON'T SHOW

Here's the part that makes this fight different. Chimaev and Strickland trained together at Xtreme Couture in Las Vegas for about a month back in 2021. Chimaev was campaigning at welterweight at the time and visiting alongside Darren Till. Strickland was building toward his middleweight run. According to Eric Nicksick, the head coach at Xtreme Couture and Strickland's longtime corner, the two of them got along fine in the gym. "I thought they pushed each other really well," Nicksick told Ariel Helwani. "I felt like it was more of a competitive environment than anything."

Five years later, that competitive environment has curdled into one of the meanest pre-fight build-ups in recent memory.

Strickland claims he made Chimaev quit Xtreme Couture. Chimaev claims he submitted Strickland multiple times. Nicksick refuses to back up either side, which is the right call from a professional coach but also the most frustrating answer possible if you're trying to figure out what actually happened. Dana White has reportedly increased security around fight week. There's a podcast clip where Strickland admits Chimaev tapped him a few times in those sessions, which complicates the "I made him quit" narrative considerably. Chimaev simply tweeted "See you soon boy" in February after Strickland called him out post-Hernandez.

What's not in dispute is that they know each other's tendencies. Both camps have admitted as much. Whether that helps the champion or the challenger is the entire question of this fight, and it's the one piece of information no betting model can properly price.

THE CHAMPION'S CASE FOR BACKING CHIMAEV

Chimaev is, on paper, the worst stylistic matchup possible for almost every middleweight on the roster. He has never been taken down in professional MMA. His takedown defense rate sits at 100%. His last three wins are over Kamaru Usman (decision), Robert Whittaker (first-round submission), and Dricus Du Plessis (the historic decision). Every one of those guys was a former UFC champion. Chimaev is now 15-0 and joined Israel Adesanya and Chris Weidman as the only middleweight title-winners to claim the belt while undefeated.

The cardio question is the one Chimaev hadn't answered until UFC 319. He'd had famously ugly third rounds against Gilbert Burns and Kamaru Usman where he visibly faded. Against Du Plessis he answered it. Twenty-one minutes of control time over five rounds is not a guy gassing out. He paced himself, took what he wanted, and never gave Du Plessis a moment of meaningful offense.

The Chimaev path to victory is straightforward: shoot, land, control, repeat. If he gets Strickland on the mat early and stays heavy, this fight ends within three rounds either by submission, by ground-and-pound stoppage, or by the kind of crucifix beating that Du Plessis ate twice in Chicago. You don't need a spreadsheet to figure out the game plan.

THE CHALLENGER'S CASE FOR BACKING STRICKLAND

Strickland is the worst possible opponent if you want a quick night's work. He has the best significant strike defense rate among active middleweights at 61.1%. His Philly Shell stance, adapted for the cage, deflects shots with shoulders and elbows in a way that frustrates volume strikers. Three of his last five fights have gone five rounds. The man is a marathon runner. If you can't finish him in the first 10 minutes, you're in for 15 more of him pumping that jab in your face and walking you down.

Two specific factors give the Strickland believers something to point at:

First, Du Plessis himself has said publicly that Strickland is the worst stylistic matchup for Chimaev. Du Plessis took Strickland down seven times across their two fights and admitted the toughest part wasn't getting the takedown, it was keeping him there. "At Xtreme Couture, where they train, they specialize in getting to their feet," Du Plessis told SA Boxing Talk. Coming from a guy who beat Strickland twice and then got mauled by Chimaev, that's not nothing.

Second, the Adesanya parallel is real. Adesanya was a heavy favorite over Strickland at UFC 293, sitting at odds similar to what we're seeing on Chimaev now. Strickland beat him via unanimous decision and won a UFC title in the process. Markets aren't infallible, especially in fights where one guy is being priced on his ceiling and the other is being priced on his floor.

The Strickland path: don't get taken down in the first 10 minutes, force Chimaev to strike with him, drag the fight into deep waters. Chimaev's only two decisions in the UFC were also his only two five-round fights (Usman, Du Plessis). Strickland has fought five-round main events seven times. Math is math.

WHERE THE BETTING VALUE LANDS

The team is split, which is honest reporting. Tom and Harry have Chimaev inside the distance, both pointing at the takedown defense numbers and Strickland's chin not being what it used to be after the Pereira knockout. Denise and Oswald are leaning Strickland, citing the cardio gap and the Adesanya parallel. Rebecca thinks it's a five-round decision with Chimaev winning 49-46. Knockers and Dave the Reader are siding with the champion via late stoppage. Arty wants no part of either side. Monique, Englebert, Todd, and Mercedez all separately landed on "Chimaev decision, but not as wide as Du Plessis."

The honest read: Chimaev is the right favorite, but 1.18 is rich. If you believe the champion wins, the value is in method-of-victory props rather than the moneyline. Chimaev by submission or by KO/TKO offers a lot more juice than the straight winner market. If you believe Strickland, 5.00 is a meaningful number on a champion making his first defense, and we have already seen him pull this exact upset once before.

We'll have a full betting card breakdown closer to fight week. For now, that's the main event.