Where Can I Bet on NFL Player Props?
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For those who are in the "know", betting on NFL player props is a bit of a secret.
Traditional NFL lines are so closely scrutinized that finding an edge is practically impossible. Try it - if you are right on more than 55% of your NFL bets long-term, you are considered a near-genius.
NFL player props are completely different, however, and there is definitely money to be made, especially if you are willing to put in the research.
Why are NFL player props considered soft?
Why are player props considered "soft" (easy to make a profit on) compared to traditional lines? There are a few reasons, including:
Sportsbooks simply don't have the resources to closely analyze every single player prop line that they put up.
An average sportsbook will have hundreds, if not thousands, of NFL player props up every week.
How do they set these lines? They usually just take a player's total stats for the year, divide by the number of games that they have played, and that is the starting line.
As bets come in, the book will usually adjust the line accordingly.
The "smart" money will have their projections down by Monday afternoon and they will be ready to absolutely hammer the player props as soon as they are made available.
Now, this is where your research comes in.
Do you believe that a wide receiver is going to get an inferior cornerback covering him on Monday Night Football? If so, this might be your edge, and you might want to bet the "over" on his Total Yards Received line.
Wsa a certain running back getting most of the first team reps in practice in the week leading up to a game? If so, this might be a vital piece of information that could help his "Total Carries" number go over.
Does a quarterback look to be struggling? If so, you might want to take the under.
The point here is this - sportsbooks can't follow all of these developments, as they just don't have the resources. This is your edge.
Sportsbooks look at these player props as marketing.
It's important to note that sportsbooks will usually have fairly low limits on player props, so if you want to put some serious money down, you will likely need a number of different sportsbooks.
A book might have a limit of something like $100 for a player prop bet. They don't mind losing a bit of their edge on these wagers, as they help to bring people in the door. Remember, sportsbooks already spend a small fortune on marketing costs, so losing a few dollars a year in player props is no big deal.
These sportsbooks are basically saying, with these lower limits - we know that we are vulnerable on these lines, and we don't care.
So why not take advantage?
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How do player props work?
Now, let's talk a bit about NFL player props.
First off, what are the different player props that you can bet on?
The different bets are practically endless.
Let's say that you have a wide receiver that you want to bet on. You believe that this WR is going to have a big game, so you want to bet some "overs".
Now, a wide receiver is likely to have the following lines at any sportsbook:
Over/Under Receiving Yards
Over/Under Receptions
So, let's say that you have a player like Julio Jones. His lines might look like this:
Over/Under Receiving Yards, 102.5 yards
Under, 1.90
Over, 1.90
Over/Under Receptions, 7.5
Under, 1.90
Over, 1.90
So, let's say that you believe Julio is going to have nine catches and 150 yards of receiving.
In this case, you'd obviously want to take the over on both lines.
Wide receivers might also have a couple of other lines to bet on, such as how many touchdowns this will have, as well as how many targets they will have.
Now, take any offensive position (minus the offensive line), and you will likely have an assortment of things to bet on.
For a quarterback, for instance, you will be able to bet on things like total passing yards, total touchdowns thrown, total yards rushed, total interceptions, total pass attempts.
For any wide receiver or tight end, you will have total receiving yards, total catches and total touchdowns, to name a few.
For a running back, you'll have total yards rushed, total yards received, total rushes, total touchdowns and more.
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First TD Scored Prop
One of the most popular NFL player props is the First TD scored prop.
The main attraction of these props is the high potential payout, especially when it comes to players that are further down the depth chart.
For instance - let's say that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are playing host to the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday Night Football.
You believe that there is a decent chance that Amari Cooper catches the first touchdown pass of the game, as he looked really good in training camp and has shown some great chemistry with Dak Prescott in the past.
You look at your favorite sportsbook's lines, and you see that Amari Cooper is +1500 to score the first touchdown of the game.
So, if you wagered $100 on Amari Cooper to score the first touchdown, you would receive a total profit of $1,500 if he managed to score the first touchdown.
The first TD props have proven to be very popular over the years.
The Importance of Multiple Books When It Comes to Betting on Props
Why is it important to have account at multiple sportsbooks when it comes to betting player props?
There are a few reasons, including:
Bonuses. Sportsbooks will give you bonuses for opening up and funding accounts, so you should be taking full advantage of these offers.
Diversity of prop offerings. Some books will only offer a limited number of different player props, though their list of bettable players is very long. Other books will offer a long list of different props, ranging from the simple to the exotic. In order to take full advantage, you need accounts open at multiple sportsbooks.
Arbitrage. Sportsbooks can't keep up and constantly adjust their lines. If smart money hammers a line at one book, you may see a very different line at another book. For instance, if the betting line on Julio Jones receiving yards quickly rises from 102.5 to 111.5 at a major book, this likely means that the smart money is pounding this line. If your book has the line set at 102.5 still, this would be a potentially fabulous opportunity to take the 102.5 line to give yourself a much better chance of winning.
Fantasy Football Meets Prop Betting
Many tens of millions of Americans (and more throughout the world) play fantasy football on a weekly basis.
The serious fantasy football players know the players on their team cold - their tendencies, whether they are currently hot, etc.
Why not apply this knowledge to prop betting to make some money?
If you believe that Aaron Rodgers is likely to throw for over 350 yards in his next game against the Chicago Bears, taking him to throw for over 285.5 yards at your favorite online sportsbook would seem to be a no-brainer.
As mentioned, sportsbooks can't monitor every line closely for prop bets, and they also can't spend too much time thinking about where they will set every single line.
They will likely need to set hundreds of player props lines every week, and setting the Aaron Rodgers line probably won't take more than a few seconds. They'll likely look at how many yards per game he is passing for so far in the season, quickly consider who he is going up against and set a line from there.
This is especially the case with the more obscure players in a game.
For instance, let's say that you have been closely following a running back who will be getting his first start.
You have followed this player from college, and you know that they are very good at pass catching.
The over/under line for receiving yards might be set at 10.5, as this is a rookie player that people don't know too much about.
This might be the perfect opportunity to exploit a line, as you believe that the 10.5 yards line has been set far too low, and you believe that this running back is more than capable of busting out a big run after a catch. This player is elusive and they use their blocks well, and you believe that they will break a big player after a catch.
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This is the sort of insights that you can apply to NFL player prop betting, and this is why knowledgeable players can find themselves gaining an edge over the sportsbooks.
