UFC · UFC 330 - Welterweight Title
Islam Makhachev vs Ian Machado Garry
Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia
Source: Bet365 · Board captured Aug 9, 19:48 UTC · Odds subject to change - check current prices before betting
“Makhachev at 1.26 is the price of a class gap, but the method table is the real read: decision at 2.30 and submission at 2.90 run close together - the board makes him almost as likely to end this as to outpoint it - while Garry's path lives nearly entirely on the scorecards at 5.75. A seventeenth straight win would stand alone in UFC history, and the market prices the run to continue.” — Sports-King
Money line 4.37% hold
Two fighters, two prices. Fair chance = the price with Bet365's margin stripped out; a draw or no contest is priced separately in the method market.
| Fighter | Price | Fair chance | Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 76.0% | ||
| Ian Machado Garry | 24.0% |
Total rounds 5.70% hold
The half-round lands at the 2:30 mark: over 4.5 needs the fight to pass the midpoint of round 5 of 5.
| Selection | Price | Returns |
|---|---|---|
| Over 4.5 | ||
| Under 4.5 |
Full ladder: 1.5 (1.18 / 4.75) · 2.5 (1.33 / 3.25) · 3.5 (1.50 / 2.55)
Method of victory 19.91% hold
Fair chance shares are normalized inside this market's own book - the seven prices above 100% shown as a distribution.
| Method | Islam Makhachev | Ian Machado Garry |
|---|---|---|
| Decision or technical decision | ||
| KO, TKO or DQ | ||
| Submission | ||
| Draw or no winner | ||
Method double chance 12.20% hold
| Combination | Islam Makhachev | Ian Machado Garry |
|---|---|---|
| By KO, TKO, DQ or submission | ||
| By KO, TKO, DQ or decision | ||
| By submission or decision |
Method and round
Every finish, priced by round. Click a price format above to convert the whole grid; the distance itself lives two sections down.
| Finish | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | R5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev by KO/TKO/DQ | |||||
| Islam Makhachev by submission | |||||
| Ian Machado Garry by KO/TKO/DQ | |||||
| Ian Machado Garry by submission |
Round betting
| Ends in | Islam Makhachev | Ian Machado Garry | Either |
|---|---|---|---|
| Round 1 | |||
| Round 2 | |||
| Round 3 | |||
| Round 4 | |||
| Round 5 | |||
| On the scorecards | |||
| Tie or no winner | |||
The distance 6.25% hold
| Fight goes the distance | Price | Returns |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | ||
| No |
Coherence check. This board prices the distance 3 separate ways: the distance market itself says 54.1%; the round-betting book says 47.8%; the method book says 51.8%. A 6.3-point disagreement - the board's own answers split, which is information, never a tip.
Advertisement. 18+. Odds shown are a snapshot of the Bet365 board taken August 9, 2026 and are subject to change; check current prices before betting. Fair probabilities, the scoreline model and derived markets are computed from this snapshot alone and are not betting advice. This page contains affiliate links; Sports-King may receive a commission if you sign up through them, at no cost to you. Please gamble responsibly: set a budget before you start and never bet more than you can afford to lose. Support is available at GambleAware.org.
