Premier League
Hull vs Man Utd
MKM Stadium, Hull
Source: Bet365 · Board captured Aug 8, 17:04 UTC · Odds subject to change - check current prices before betting
“The 1.44 on United carries Early Payout insurance, but the shape underneath is stingier than the headline: over 2.5 at 1.80 against a 2.00 under says goals are expected without being guaranteed, and the sharpest market on the board - the Asian spread at minus 1.25 - prices United to win by exactly enough, not by plenty.” — Sports-King
Money line 8.54% hold
| Selection | Price | Fair chance | Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hull | 14.7% | ||
| Draw | 21.3% | ||
| Man Utd | 64.0% |
Goals over/under 5.56% hold
Settles on 90 minutes plus stoppage. Fair chance = the price with Bet365's margin stripped out. The board is close to even on goals - neither side of the total carries a strong lean.
| Selection | Price | Fair chance | Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 52.6% | ||
| Under 2.5 | 47.4% |
Full ladder: 0.5 (1.04 / 13.00) · 1.5 (1.25 / 4.00) · 3.5 (3.00 / 1.40) · 4.5 (5.50 / 1.14) · 5.5 (11.00 / 1.05) · 6.5 (21.00 / 1.015) · 7.5 (41.00 / 1.004)
Both teams to score 6.84% hold
| Selection | Price | Fair chance | Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 48.0% | ||
| No | 52.0% |
Asian lines 4.05% hold
Quarter lines are two bets in one. Click a row to see exactly how your stake splits and what each result returns.
| Selection | Price | Returns |
|---|---|---|
| Hull +1.0, +1.5 ⓘ | ||
| Man Utd -1.0, -1.5 ⓘ | ||
| Goal line 2.5, 3.0 - over ⓘ | ||
| Goal line 2.5, 3.0 - under ⓘ |
Full ladder: Hull -0.5 (6.00) · Hull 0.0, -0.5 (5.75) · Hull 0.0 (5.00) · Hull 0.0, +0.5 (3.45) · Hull +0.5 (2.675) · Hull +0.5, +1.0 (2.375) · Hull +1.0 (2.075) · Hull +1.5 (1.625) · Hull +1.5, +2.0 (1.475) · Hull +2.0 (1.30) · Hull +2.0, +2.5 (1.26) · Hull +2.5 (1.225) · Hull +2.5, +3.0 (1.15) · Man Utd +0.5 (1.125) · Man Utd 0.0, +0.5 (1.14) · Man Utd 0.0 (1.17) · Man Utd 0.0, -0.5 (1.30) · Man Utd -0.5 (1.45) · Man Utd -0.5, -1.0 (1.55) · Man Utd -1.0 (1.725) · Man Utd -1.5 (2.25) · Man Utd -1.5, -2.0 (2.60) · Man Utd -2.0 (3.45) · Man Utd -2.0, -2.5 (3.70) · Man Utd -2.5 (4.10) · Man Utd -2.5, -3.0 (5.50)
Result and total goals 13.61% hold
Six-way combos carry the fattest margin on the board - normal, not a Bet365 quirk: combining two variables compounds the edge, which is why sharper bettors mostly stick to main lines. The fair match odds below are derived from these prices.
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Fair match odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hull | 14.7% | ||
| Draw | 21.3% | ||
| Man Utd | 64.0% |
Scoreline heat map
A Poisson model fitted to nothing but this board (expected goals 0.82 – 1.97, from the money line and the totals). Click a cell to price it against your stake - as the model's fair value, not a Bet365 price.
Most likely: 0–1 (12.2%) · 0–2 (12.0%) · 1–1 (9.9%) · 1–2 (9.8%). Rows: Hull goals; columns: Man Utd.
Markets this board doesn't show model-derived
Fair values built from the board's own probabilities - the model's numbers, not Bet365 prices; a yardstick if you shop these markets on site.
| Derived market | Fair chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Hull draw no bet | 18.7% | 5.34 |
| Man Utd draw no bet | 81.3% | 1.23 |
| Double chance: Hull or draw | 36.0% | 2.78 |
| Double chance: Man Utd or draw | 85.3% | 1.17 |
Coherence check. The goals model predicts both teams score 48.0% of the time; the BTTS market prices it at a fair 48.0%. Within 0.0 points - this board agrees with itself.
Advertisement. 18+. Odds shown are a snapshot of the Bet365 board taken August 8, 2026 and are subject to change; check current prices before betting. Fair probabilities, the scoreline model and derived markets are computed from this snapshot alone and are not betting advice. This page contains affiliate links; Sports-King may receive a commission if you sign up through them, at no cost to you. Please gamble responsibly: set a budget before you start and never bet more than you can afford to lose. Support is available at GambleAware.org.
