Holding the Heisman Lead

Every November Favorite, Season by Season

Here is the whole record. Each square is one season, from Mark Ingram in 2009 to Fernando Mendoza in 2025. Blue means the player who was the betting favorite on or about November 1 went on to win the Heisman. Grey means he did not.

Eight blue, nine grey. The favorite held on in 2009 and 2010, then lost four of the next five years. Since 2018 it has been four wins in eight seasons: Joe Burrow in 2019, Bryce Young in 2021, Travis Hunter in 2024 and Fernando Mendoza last year. Here is every season in full, with the board each favorite comes from.

What the Price Said

A favorite at -1000 and a favorite at +200 are not the same thing, so I split them by price. Odds-on favorites, the ones priced at minus money, won two of seven. Favorites at even money or longer won six of ten.

That is the opposite of what you might expect, and seven seasons is a small sample, so I would not read too much into the gap. On these boards the odds-on favorites' prices added up to about 5.0 wins, with the bookmaker's margin left in, and they won two. Tua Tagovailoa at -1000 in 2018, Leonard Fournette at -225 in 2015, Andrew Luck at -200 in 2011, and Collin Klein and Saquon Barkley, both at -175, all lost.

Across all 17 seasons the favorites' prices added up to about 9.0 wins and the real total was eight. A flat $100 on every early-November favorite at these prices would have cost $1,700 and returned about $1,900, a profit of about $200, because several of the winners were at plus money. So the favorite has not been a losing bet as a group. It has just been far from a sure thing.

The Price Checker

Type in any favorite's price and the checker shows the chance it implies and how past early-November favorites at a similar price did. It starts at +160, Mensah's price when November began.

Two cautions. The groups are small, from one season to nine, so the record is a rough guide and not a forecast. And the implied chance includes the bookmaker's margin, so the true chance the market gives a player is a little lower than the number shown.

The Late Climb

Every losing favorite was beaten by someone. This chart puts the favorite's price at the early-November snapshot next to the eventual winner's price on the same board. Pick a season to read how it turned.

The winners who came from furthest back were DeVonta Smith at +1600 in 2020, and Derrick Henry and Caleb Williams, both at +1400, in 2015 and 2022. Robert Griffin III in 2011 and Johnny Manziel in 2012 did not even appear on the boards I could find from the time. Baker Mayfield was +750 on October 31, 2017. In two seasons the winner was the second favorite: Jameis Winston in 2013 and Kyler Murray in 2018.

The Collapse File

These are the nine favorites who led in early November and did not win, shortest price first. Most of them lost a big game in November. A couple were overtaken by a teammate or a rival who simply had the better month.

Losing a game in November has been the most common way to lose the lead. Lamar Jackson is the exception that proves how much it takes to survive one: he was -2000 in early November 2016, Louisville then lost to Houston and Kentucky, and he still won, because his lead was that big.

The Quarterback Question

The Heisman is a quarterback's award, and the November market knows it. Thirteen of the 17 early-November favorites were quarterbacks. The others were three running backs, Mark Ingram, Leonard Fournette and Saquon Barkley, and Travis Hunter, who played receiver and corner.

Ingram and Hunter are the only non-quarterbacks who led in early November and held on. The other two non-quarterback winners, Derrick Henry and DeVonta Smith, came from behind.

How Big Was the Win?

Last, the size of the win. Each bar is the winner's margin in voting points over the runner-up.

Favorites who held on usually won big. Their average margin was about 930 points, against about 600 for the winners who came from behind. Joe Burrow's 1,846-point margin over Jalen Hurts in 2019 is the record, and Mark Ingram's 28 points over Toby Gerhart in 2009 is the closest finish in Heisman history. Ingram was also the November favorite.

Mensah's +160 puts him in the group from even money to +200, where six of nine past favorites won. That is better than the prices in that group suggested, but nine seasons is a small sample, and three of the nine still lost.

One Last Word

On the boards I found, the November leader won eight times in 17 seasons, so being favored with a month to go has been close to a coin flip. The season I keep coming back to is 2018. Tua Tagovailoa was -1000 in early November, Kyler Murray was still +600, and there was enough football left for them to trade places.