Top of the Table in November

The Record: 17 of 34

Here is every season. Each square is one Premier League season, from Norwich in 1992-93 to Arsenal in 2025-26, labeled by the year it started. Blue means the team top of the table at the November break went on to win the title. Grey means they did not. Tap or hover over a square for the details.

Exactly half. Seven of the first 17 November leaders won the title, and ten of the last 17 did, so the top of the table in November has become a better guide than it was in the 1990s. It is still a long way from a sure thing. Five times a team top in November finished fifth or lower, and Newcastle in 1994-95 and Aston Villa in 1998-99 both finished sixth.

The champions who were top at the break include the best teams the league has seen. Manchester City were eight points clear in November 2017 and finished with 100 points. Liverpool were eight clear in November 2019 and finished with 99. Manchester United were 11 points clear in November 1993, the biggest lead at the break in any season.

How Big a Lead Is Safe?

The size of the lead matters more than being top. I split the 34 November leaders into three groups: level on points or one point clear, two to four points clear, and five or more clear.

A narrow lead in November means very little. Teams level on points or a point clear won the title three times in 12 tries, which is worse than a coin flip. Once the lead reaches five points the record changes: seven of nine went on to win. The two that did not were Newcastle in 1995-96, eight clear having played a game more than Manchester United, and Arsenal in 2022-23, five clear at the start of the World Cup break.

Here is every leader placed by the size of the lead, so you can see where the losses sit.

The Lead Checker

Type in a lead in points and the checker returns every November leader who was at least that far clear, and how many of them won the title. Use 0 to include everyone.

The Title Race, Animated

Pick a season and press play. The chart runs from the first round to the last and shows the league position of the team top at the November break and of the team that won the title. The dotted line marks the break. In seasons where the November leader won, there is one line.

The Points Race, Drawn Out

Position only tells you who is ahead. Points tell you by how much. This chart draws the running points totals of the same two teams for any season. Arsenal in 2022-23 is a good one to start with: the red line is clear of the blue one for most of the season, and the blue line passes it late.

From Behind in November

In the 17 seasons where the November leader did not win, the champion was somewhere behind them at the break. Here is how far back each of them was. The red bars are the champions who were eight or more points behind.

The record comeback from the November break is nine points. Manchester United were 10th, nine points behind Norwich, in November 1992, the first season of the Premier League. They won it by ten. Four more champions were eight points back, all of them Manchester United under Alex Ferguson, in 1995-96, 1996-97, 2002-03 and 2008-09. Nobody has won the title from more than nine points behind at the break.

The lowest place at the break is 10th, and it has happened twice: United in 1992-93 and Manchester City in 2020-21, when the season started late and only eight rounds had been played by November. City were also eighth in November 2013 and won the title. Of the 34 champions, 17 were top at the break, 6 were second and 4 were third. Only 7 won it from fourth or lower.

A November gap can also grow before it closes. Manchester United were eight points behind Newcastle at the break in 1995-96, and by January 1996 Newcastle were 12 points clear. United still won the league by four.

The Collapses

Seventeen November leaders did not win the title. Some were caught early. A few held on into the spring and lost it at the end.

Newcastle, 1995-96

Newcastle had 34 points from 13 games at the break, eight clear of Manchester United. On January 20, 1996, the gap was 12 points, with Newcastle on 54 from 23 games and United on 42. Newcastle fell apart in March, United went top for good later that month, and the final table read United 82, Newcastle 78.

Manchester United, 1997-98

United were top at the break by a single point over Arsenal. By March 6, 1998, they were 11 points clear with ten matches left, but Arsenal had games in hand. Arsenal won ten league games in a row and took the title by a point, 78 to 77.

Arsenal, 2022-23

The Qatar World Cup split the season in November 2022, and Arsenal went into the break with 37 points from 14 games, five clear of Manchester City. That is the most points by any November leader who did not win the title. They were still eight clear on April 1 and spent 248 days at the top, according to the Associated Press. City kept winning, went top in early May and clinched the title on May 20. Arsenal finished second on 84 points to City's 89.

Aston Villa, 1998-99, and Newcastle, 1994-95

These are the two worst finishes by a November leader. Villa were two points clear in November 1998 and finished sixth on 55 points, 24 behind champions Manchester United. Newcastle were two clear in November 1994 and also finished sixth, 17 points behind Blackburn.

Liverpool, 2016-17

Liverpool were a point clear of Chelsea at the break and finished fourth, 17 points behind them. Chelsea won 13 league games in a row from the start of October and were champions with 93 points.

When the leader lost the lead and won it back

Manchester City were top in November 2018, two points ahead of Liverpool. By December 29, Liverpool were nine points clear of Tottenham and ten clear of City. "It's absolutely not important how many points you are ahead in December," Jurgen Klopp said that day, according to Sporting Life. He was right. City won 14 league games in a row to finish the season and won the title by a point, 98 to 97. Liverpool's 97 is still the most points by a team that did not win the league.

Then and Now

Is the November table a better guide than it used to be? Here is the November leader's record in each era.

The 1990s were the hardest decade to call. Only two of the eight November leaders from 1992-93 to 1999-00 won the title, and both were Manchester United. From 2000-01 to 2019-20 the rate was 12 of 20, helped by Chelsea under Jose Mourinho and City under Pep Guardiola, who tended to lead early and stay there. The 2020s are back to three of six. From 2020-21 to 2022-23 the team top in November lost the title three years running. The November leader then won in 2023-24, 2024-25 and 2025-26.

Every Season, One Table

The full record. Points show the leader's total and, in brackets, games played. The champion column shows where the eventual champion stood at the break and how many points behind. Click a column heading to sort.