Aintree Novices Championship Hurdle Qualifier Betting Odds and Preview

Friday, 6 November 2026 | 1:15 pm GMT (5:15 am PT, 8:15 am ET) | Aintree Racecourse, Liverpool | Live on ITV4

The first day of Aintree's November meeting includes a novice hurdle that carries a little more weight than its Class 3 tag suggests. The BetMGM Novices' Hurdle is a qualifier for the Novices' Championship Hurdle Series, one of the races that feed the series final, a valuable handicap hurdle at Sandown on the last day of the jumps season in April. Fourteen novices go to post over two miles and a furlong, and the market has a clear favourite but plenty of depth behind him.

Source: Bet365
Time Stamp: 02 November 2026
Odds Subject to Change

The Odds

Risky Obsession 2.87
Black Eddy 4.50
Lunar Trix 5.50
Aqua Bleu 7.50
Kershaw 8.00
Watery Borren 8.00
Avide 10.00
Cowboy Casanova 13.00
Youcancountonme 13.00
Nimba 15.00
Mia Sunshine 17.00
Blue Sweeper 26.00
Grande J 34.00
Aye Over Tee 101.00

Each-way terms: 1/5 the odds, places 1-2-3.

Race Details

Race: BetMGM Novices' Hurdle (Novices' Championship Hurdle Series Qualifier)
Class: 3
Open to: 4-year-olds and up, novices over hurdles
Distance: 2 miles 1 furlong (2m 209y), 9 hurdles
Surface: Turf
Going at declaration: Good (the course has been watering)
Weights: 11st, with a 7lb allowance for fillies and mares
Prize money: £15,000 guaranteed, £8,169 to the winner
Runners: 14

The Favourite

Risky Obsession (2.87) heads the betting for Dan Skelton, with Harry Skelton booked to ride. The price says the market expects him to be the best horse in the race on what he has shown. The one thing to note is that this is his first run of the new season, so the 2.87 is a bet on him coming back at his best. At that price the market makes him roughly a one-in-three chance before the bookmaker's margin is taken out.

The Penalised Winners

Four horses carry 11st 6lb, six pounds more than most of the field, and the reason is simple: they have already won. Three of them sit right behind the favourite in the betting. Black Eddy (4.50) won last time out for Mickey Bowen, Lunar Trix (5.50) is two from two for Stuart Edmunds and Charlie Hammond, and Kershaw (8.00) also arrives off a win for Lucinda Russell and Michael Scudamore.

The penalty is the price of winning in novice company, and it is the main reason these three are not shorter. Lunar Trix is the one to watch closely. He is a four-year-old, still unbeaten, and the youngest of the penalised runners, which usually means there is improvement still to come.

The Interesting One at 8.00

Watery Borren (8.00), the second Russell and Scudamore runner, is also unbeaten in two and also carries the penalty, and on the ratings in the racecard he has the best figures of anyone in the field. That combination at 8.00, level with his stablemate, is the part of this market most likely to move once the stable makes clear which of the two it prefers and the jockey bookings settle.

The Rest of the Field

Aqua Bleu (7.50) runs for Warren Greatrex and is one of only two runners with an official rating, 124 (Mia Sunshine, on 111, is the other). He strung together a run of wins before being pulled up on his final start, so he is another making a seasonal return with a question to answer.

Avide (10.00) is the one with the least public form to go on, for Donald McCain and Theo Gillard, and the price reflects that more than any judgement on his ability.

Cowboy Casanova (13.00) is the honest type: placed again and again in his recent form without getting his head in front. His last five runs read third, second, third, third, second. Youcancountonme (13.00) was second last time for Anthony Honeyball and has Harry Cobden booked, which is worth noting at that price.

Mickey Bowen saddles four of the 14, and alongside Black Eddy and Cowboy Casanova he runs Nimba (15.00), third last time, and Mia Sunshine (17.00), a winner last time out who carries the lightest weight in the race at 10st 13lb with Shane Fenelon claiming five pounds. Put the four together and the stable accounts for a big share of the market.

Blue Sweeper (26.00) and Aye Over Tee (101.00) both run for Jonjo and A J O'Neill, with Blue Sweeper yet to show form on the racecard, and Grande J (34.00) completes the field for Rebecca Curtis.

The Full Field

Risky Obsession 2.87 | Age: 5 | Weight: 11st 0lb | Trainer: Dan Skelton | Jockey: Harry Skelton

Black Eddy 4.50 | Age: 5 | Weight: 11st 6lb | Trainer: Mickey Bowen | Jockey: TBC

Lunar Trix 5.50 | Age: 4 | Weight: 11st 6lb | Trainer: Stuart Edmunds | Jockey: Charlie Hammond

Aqua Bleu 7.50 | Age: 4 | Weight: 11st 0lb | Trainer: Warren Greatrex | Jockey: TBC

Kershaw 8.00 | Age: 5 | Weight: 11st 6lb | Trainer: Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore | Jockey: TBC

Watery Borren 8.00 | Age: 5 | Weight: 11st 6lb | Trainer: Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore | Jockey: TBC

Avide 10.00 | Age: 4 | Weight: 11st 0lb | Trainer: Donald McCain | Jockey: Theo Gillard

Cowboy Casanova 13.00 | Age: 5 | Weight: 11st 0lb | Trainer: Mickey Bowen | Jockey: TBC

Youcancountonme 13.00 | Age: 4 | Weight: 11st 0lb | Trainer: Anthony Honeyball | Jockey: Harry Cobden

Nimba 15.00 | Age: 5 | Weight: 11st 0lb | Trainer: Mickey Bowen | Jockey: TBC

Mia Sunshine 17.00 | Age: 4 | Weight: 10st 13lb | Trainer: Mickey Bowen | Jockey: Shane Fenelon (5)

Blue Sweeper 26.00 | Age: 4 | Weight: 11st 0lb | Trainer: Jonjo & A J O'Neill | Jockey: TBC

Grande J 34.00 | Age: 5 | Weight: 11st 0lb | Trainer: Rebecca Curtis | Jockey: TBC

Aye Over Tee 101.00 | Age: 4 | Weight: 11st 0lb | Trainer: Jonjo & A J O'Neill | Jockey: TBC

How the Market Reads

Three horses, Risky Obsession, Black Eddy and Lunar Trix, take up most of the market between them, and the rest are spread out from 7.50 to 101.00. Early-week prices for a Friday novice hurdle tend to move a lot, and these add up to well over 100%, which is the bookmaker's margin showing at this stage. Treat them as an opening read rather than a settled view. The things most likely to shift them are jockey bookings for the runners still without a rider, any non-runners from the multiple-entry stables, and the going if the watering continues and the ground quickens.

Final Word

This is a qualifier with a proper favourite, a strong group of penalised winners and one unbeaten horse at 8.00 who looks better on the figures than his price suggests. It should tell us which of these novices are heading for the bigger days at Cheltenham and Aintree in the spring, and which are heading for Sandown in April.

Source: Bet365
Time Stamp: 02 November 2026
Odds Subject to Change

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