NFL Playoffs
2026 NFL Playoff Odds
Every team’s chance of making the playoffs, winning its division, earning the bye and winning the Super Bowl, from 100,000 simulated seasons. Pick results yourself and watch the race change. Updated October 29, 2026.
The bracket as it stands
For each conference: first the seeds if the season ended today, with each side’s chance to win the game (home team in bold), then the projected bracket. The projection is a bracket that can really happen: each division’s favourite takes seeds 1 to 4, and the seven teams are placed where their combined chance of holding those exact seeds is highest. “This seed” is each team’s chance of finishing in exactly that seed; “Div. or WC” is its chance of winning the division (seeds 1 to 4) or a wild card (seeds 5 to 7).
AFC if the season ended today
Projected AFC seeds
| Seed | Team | This seed | Div. or WC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas City Chiefs | 21.1% | 63.3% |
| 2 | Buffalo Bills | 15.9% | 61.6% |
| 3 | Cincinnati Bengals | 13.7% | 51.6% |
| 4 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 24.9% | 92.1% |
| 5 | Denver Broncos | 19.2% | 43.8% |
| 6 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 14.9% | 42.1% |
| 7 | Cleveland Browns | 14.3% | 32.2% |
NFC if the season ended today
Projected NFC seeds
| Seed | Team | This seed | Div. or WC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minnesota Vikings | 43.3% | 72.4% |
| 2 | San Francisco 49ers | 36.4% | 81.4% |
| 3 | New York Giants | 29.6% | 54.9% |
| 4 | Atlanta Falcons | 16.9% | 35.4% |
| 5 | Seattle Seahawks | 25.4% | 60.7% |
| 6 | Chicago Bears | 20.5% | 60.3% |
| 7 | Green Bay Packers | 16.9% | 39.1% |
Playoff odds for every team
From 100,000 simulated seasons. Use a column heading to sort, or a team for its full picture.
| San Francisco 49ers | 6-1 | 12.6 | 97.5% | 81.4% | 39.6% | 74.9% | 46.3% | 26.4% | 14.2% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 6-0 | 12.7 | 96.8% | 72.4% | 43.3% | 74.6% | 43.7% | 24.0% | 12.4% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 4-2 | 11.8 | 95.2% | 92.1% | 21.3% | 69.8% | 42.3% | 25.0% | 13.8% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 5-1 | 11.4 | 91.0% | 63.3% | 21.1% | 58.4% | 30.3% | 15.0% | 7.4% |
| Buffalo Bills | 5-1 | 11.5 | 89.5% | 61.6% | 19.9% | 56.9% | 29.2% | 14.5% | 7.2% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 4-2 | 11.4 | 86.6% | 51.6% | 13.8% | 53.9% | 28.1% | 14.5% | 7.4% |
| Denver Broncos | 5-2 | 10.8 | 78.7% | 34.9% | 10.2% | 41.5% | 18.8% | 8.4% | 3.8% |
| New England Patriots | 4-3 | 10.3 | 78.5% | 37.6% | 6.0% | 44.3% | 22.3% | 11.2% | 5.7% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 4-3 | 10.6 | 77.1% | 16.4% | 4.7% | 48.3% | 26.5% | 14.5% | 8.0% |
| Chicago Bears | 5-2 | 10.5 | 73.7% | 13.4% | 5.5% | 42.2% | 20.4% | 9.9% | 4.9% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 5-2 | 10.6 | 72.5% | 30.4% | 6.0% | 35.6% | 15.5% | 6.7% | 3.0% |
| Detroit Lions | 4-2 | 9.8 | 60.0% | 10.9% | 4.1% | 31.0% | 13.5% | 5.9% | 2.6% |
| New York Giants | 4-2-1 | 8.9 | 58.7% | 54.9% | 0.8% | 22.9% | 7.6% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| Cleveland Browns | 5-2 | 9.3 | 45.5% | 13.3% | 1.2% | 15.7% | 5.0% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Green Bay Packers | 4-3 | 9.1 | 42.5% | 3.3% | 0.8% | 19.5% | 7.7% | 3.1% | 1.4% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 3-4 | 8.0 | 40.1% | 35.4% | 0.3% | 18.9% | 7.9% | 3.2% | 1.3% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 3-4 | 8.2 | 39.6% | 35.5% | 0.2% | 17.6% | 6.8% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| Carolina Panthers | 3-3 | 7.7 | 33.2% | 29.2% | 0.3% | 13.8% | 5.1% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 2-5 | 7.4 | 30.8% | 28.1% | <0.1% | 14.7% | 6.2% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 3-4 | 8.5 | 30.3% | 2.2% | 0.3% | 14.9% | 6.5% | 3.0% | 1.4% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 4-3 | 8.6 | 26.7% | 4.7% | 0.6% | 10.4% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| Houston Texans | 2-5 | 7.6 | 15.7% | 5.4% | <0.1% | 6.6% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 3-4 | 7.4 | 11.0% | 1.8% | <0.1% | 3.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| New Orleans Saints | 2-5 | 6.1 | 8.2% | 7.3% | 0% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 2-5 | 5.9 | 5.5% | 5.0% | 0% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| Washington Commanders | 1-4-1 | 5.7 | 5.2% | 4.6% | 0% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 2-5 | 6.6 | 4.9% | 2.4% | 0% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| New York Jets | 2-5 | 6.1 | 3.5% | 0.6% | <0.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | <0.1% |
| Arizona Cardinals | 2-5 | 5.5 | 0.9% | <0.1% | 0% | 0.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0% |
| Miami Dolphins | 1-5 | 4.6 | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 0-6 | 3.6 | 0.1% | <0.1% | 0% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0% | 0% |
| Tennessee Titans | 1-6 | 3.7 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0% | <0.1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Biggest games of week 8
Ranked by how far each result moves the whole playoff race. The swing is the total movement, in percentage points, in the 32 teams’ playoff chances between a home win and an away win: each team’s change is counted whichever way it goes, and added up. Each side’s own playoff chance is shown after a win and after a loss. Kickoff times are US Eastern.
| Game | Kickoff (ET) | Swing (pts) | Win chance | Playoff chance with a win / a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carolina at Green Bay | Thu Oct 29 · 8:15 p.m. ET | 74 | Green Bay 62% | Carolina 46% / 25%; Green Bay 52% / 27% |
| Cleveland at Pittsburgh | Sun Nov 1 · 1 p.m. ET | 66 | Pittsburgh 66% | Cleveland 66% / 35%; Pittsburgh 82% / 55% |
| Atlanta at Tampa Bay | Sun Nov 1 · 1 p.m. ET | 65 | Tampa Bay 56% | Atlanta 57% / 26%; Tampa Bay 44% / 15% |
| Minnesota at Detroit | Sun Nov 1 · 1 p.m. ET | 52 | Detroit 46% | Minnesota 99% / 94%; Detroit 73% / 49% |
| Chicago at Seattle | Mon Nov 2 · 8:15 p.m. ET | 51 | Seattle 60% | Chicago 87% / 65%; Seattle 86% / 63% |
| Baltimore at Buffalo | Sun Nov 1 · 1 p.m. ET | 49 | Buffalo 66% | Baltimore 42% / 19%; Buffalo 95% / 79% |
| Arizona at Dallas | Sun Nov 1 · 1 p.m. ET | 44 | Dallas 71% | Arizona 2% / 0%; Dallas 46% / 25% |
| New England at Miami | Sun Nov 1 · 4:25 p.m. ET | 44 | Miami 28% | New England 84% / 64%; Miami 2% / 0% |
| Kansas City at Denver | Sun Nov 1 · 4:25 p.m. ET | 42 | Denver 50% | Kansas City 97% / 85%; Denver 88% / 69% |
| LA Chargers at LA Rams | Sun Nov 1 · 4:05 p.m. ET | 36 | LA Rams 76% | LA Chargers 0% / <0.1%; LA Rams 35% / 18% |
| Tennessee at Cincinnati | Sun Nov 1 · 1 p.m. ET | 35 | Cincinnati 83% | Tennessee 0% / <0.1%; Cincinnati 89% / 74% |
| Indianapolis at Jacksonville | Sun Nov 1 · 1 p.m. ET | 29 | Jacksonville 77% | Indianapolis 13% / 2%; Jacksonville 97% / 88% |
| Las Vegas at NY Jets | Sun Nov 1 · 1 p.m. ET | 26 | NY Jets 53% | Las Vegas 17% / 6%; NY Jets 6% / 1% |
| Philadelphia at Washington | Sun Nov 1 · 8:20 p.m. ET | 17 | Washington 54% | Philadelphia 9% / 3%; Washington 8% / 2% |
Near-certainties in our simulations
What this week could settle in the 100,000 simulated seasons. “In every simulation” means none of them went the other way, which is not the same as a mathematical clinch or elimination: a very unlikely run of results can still be possible. The NFL announces the official clinching scenarios each week.
- Nothing looks settled yet: every team’s place is still open in at least some simulated seasons, whatever happens this week. The first clinching scenarios usually appear in late November.
Scenario builder: pick the games yourself
Choose the away win, a tie or the home win for any game left (choose it again, or Clear, to undo). Your browser then plays 5,000 seasons twice from the same random draws, once with your picks and once without, so the change shown comes from your picks rather than chance. Changes are in percentage points, added to tonight’s published odds. Copy the link to share your scenario: the same picks give the same result until the next nightly update.
| Team | Playoffs | Change (pts) | Division | No. 1 seed | Super Bowl win |
|---|
Simulate the rest of the season
Press play and the rest of the season unfolds in front of you, week by week, then the playoffs, ending with a Super Bowl champion. Every run is different; each uses the same game chances as the odds above.
AFC
NFC
Our model against the prediction markets
Our chance next to an adjusted market estimate from two leading prediction sites, read October 29, 2026 at 5:24 p.m. ET, in the same run as our odds. Each price is the one the site displays for a yes contract: the middle of the best bid and offer, or the last trade where that is what the site shows. These are not prices you can necessarily trade at. Where a site quotes a whole market (at least three quarters of the teams), its prices are rescaled so the market adds up correctly, for example 14 playoff teams or one champion, which removes the sites’ margin; a partial market is used as quoted. Contracts that are closed or not trading are left out, and where both sites quote a team the two estimates are averaged. A gap of more than a few points means the model and the market see a team differently; it is not evidence of a betting edge.
Biggest disagreements tonight
- Baltimore Ravens, make the playoffs: our model 26.7%, adjusted market estimate 61.6% (the market is higher).
- Minnesota Vikings, win the division: our model 72.4%, adjusted market estimate 40.1% (we are higher).
- Minnesota Vikings, number one seed: our model 43.3%, adjusted market estimate 12.9% (we are higher).
- Pittsburgh Steelers, make the playoffs: our model 72.5%, adjusted market estimate 49.9% (we are higher).
- Los Angeles Rams, make the playoffs: our model 30.3%, adjusted market estimate 49.9% (the market is higher).
- San Francisco 49ers, number one seed: our model 39.6%, adjusted market estimate 21.5% (we are higher).
| Team | Our model | Adjusted market estimate | Gap (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 97.5% | 90.9% | +6.6 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 96.8% | 81.2% | +15.6 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 95.2% | 83.1% | +12.1 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 91.0% | 89.0% | +2.0 |
| Buffalo Bills | 89.5% | 93.9% | -4.4 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 86.6% | 78.2% | +8.4 |
| Denver Broncos | 78.7% | 75.3% | +3.4 |
| New England Patriots | 78.5% | 69.4% | +9.1 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 77.1% | 69.4% | +7.7 |
| Chicago Bears | 73.7% | 72.4% | +1.3 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 72.5% | 49.9% | +22.6 |
| Detroit Lions | 60.0% | 66.5% | -6.5 |
| New York Giants | 58.7% | 45.0% | +13.7 |
| Cleveland Browns | 45.5% | 38.1% | +7.4 |
| Green Bay Packers | 42.5% | 45.0% | -2.6 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 40.1% | 38.1% | +2.0 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 39.6% | 47.9% | -8.3 |
| Carolina Panthers | 33.2% | 36.2% | -3.0 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 30.8% | 23.5% | +7.3 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 30.3% | 49.9% | -19.6 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 26.7% | 61.6% | -34.9 |
| Houston Texans | 15.7% | 29.3% | -13.6 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 11.0% | 14.7% | -3.7 |
| New Orleans Saints | 8.2% | 15.6% | -7.4 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 5.5% | 7.8% | -2.4 |
| Washington Commanders | 5.2% | 11.7% | -6.5 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 4.9% | 3.9% | +1.0 |
| New York Jets | 3.5% | 4.9% | -1.4 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 0.9% | 2.0% | -1.1 |
| Miami Dolphins | 0.6% | 2.0% | -1.4 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 0.1% | 2.9% | -2.8 |
| Tennessee Titans | <0.1% | 1.0% | -0.9 |
| Team | Our model | Adjusted market estimate | Gap (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 92.1% | 79.5% | +12.6 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 81.4% | 72.8% | +8.6 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 72.4% | 40.1% | +32.3 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 63.3% | 62.5% | +0.8 |
| Buffalo Bills | 61.6% | 71.7% | -10.1 |
| New York Giants | 54.9% | 37.7% | +17.2 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 51.6% | 43.8% | +7.8 |
| New England Patriots | 37.6% | 25.8% | +11.8 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 35.5% | 44.9% | -9.4 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 35.4% | 36.4% | -1.0 |
| Denver Broncos | 34.9% | 34.2% | +0.7 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 30.4% | 19.4% | +11.0 |
| Carolina Panthers | 29.2% | 33.2% | -4.0 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 28.1% | 19.2% | +8.9 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 16.4% | 17.3% | -0.9 |
| Chicago Bears | 13.4% | 26.3% | -12.9 |
| Cleveland Browns | 13.3% | 14.1% | -0.8 |
| Detroit Lions | 10.9% | 25.1% | -14.2 |
| New Orleans Saints | 7.3% | 11.2% | -3.9 |
| Houston Texans | 5.4% | 15.4% | -10.0 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 5.0% | 7.9% | -2.9 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 4.7% | 22.7% | -18.0 |
| Washington Commanders | 4.6% | 9.6% | -5.0 |
| Green Bay Packers | 3.3% | 8.5% | -5.2 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 2.4% | 4.7% | -2.3 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 2.2% | 9.3% | -7.1 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 1.8% | 2.8% | -1.0 |
| New York Jets | 0.6% | 1.5% | -0.9 |
| Miami Dolphins | 0.2% | 1.0% | -0.8 |
| Tennessee Titans | <0.1% | 0.5% | -0.5 |
| Arizona Cardinals | <0.1% | 0.6% | -0.6 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | <0.1% | 0.5% | -0.5 |
| Team | Our model | Adjusted market estimate | Gap (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Vikings | 43.3% | 12.9% | +30.4 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 39.6% | 21.5% | +18.1 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 21.3% | 5.3% | +16.0 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 21.1% | 13.0% | +8.1 |
| Buffalo Bills | 19.9% | 18.0% | +1.9 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 13.8% | 8.6% | +5.2 |
| Denver Broncos | 10.2% | 7.7% | +2.5 |
| New England Patriots | 6.0% | 3.1% | +2.9 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 6.0% | 5.2% | +0.8 |
| Chicago Bears | 5.5% | 6.1% | -0.6 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 4.7% | 4.0% | +0.7 |
| Detroit Lions | 4.1% | 5.6% | -1.5 |
| Cleveland Browns | 1.2% | 5.6% | -4.4 |
| Green Bay Packers | 0.8% | 4.4% | -3.6 |
| New York Giants | 0.8% | 4.9% | -4.2 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 0.6% | 2.6% | -2.0 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 0.3% | 5.9% | -5.6 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 0.3% | 4.9% | -4.6 |
| Carolina Panthers | 0.3% | 5.0% | -4.7 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 0.2% | 4.4% | -4.2 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | <0.1% | 0.8% | -0.8 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | <0.1% | 6.6% | -6.6 |
| Houston Texans | <0.1% | 5.1% | -5.1 |
| New York Jets | <0.1% | 5.7% | -5.7 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0% | 4.4% | -4.4 |
| Washington Commanders | 0% | 5.0% | -5.0 |
| New Orleans Saints | 0% | 5.4% | -5.4 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 0% | 4.9% | -4.9 |
| Miami Dolphins | 0% | 0.8% | -0.8 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 0% | 5.6% | -5.6 |
| Tennessee Titans | 0% | 0.8% | -0.8 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 0% | 6.1% | -6.1 |
| Team | Our model | Adjusted market estimate | Gap (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 26.4% | 24.3% | +2.1 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 25.0% | 13.2% | +11.8 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 24.0% | 10.3% | +13.7 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 15.0% | 17.6% | -2.6 |
| Buffalo Bills | 14.5% | 23.3% | -8.8 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 14.5% | 12.6% | +1.9 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 14.5% | 9.7% | +4.8 |
| New England Patriots | 11.2% | 7.7% | +3.5 |
| Chicago Bears | 9.9% | 13.4% | -3.5 |
| Denver Broncos | 8.4% | 6.7% | +1.7 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 6.7% | 2.9% | +3.8 |
| Detroit Lions | 5.9% | 7.8% | -2.0 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 3.2% | 2.4% | +0.8 |
| Green Bay Packers | 3.1% | 4.4% | -1.3 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 3.0% | 11.4% | -8.4 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 2.6% | 1.3% | +1.3 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 2.6% | 4.2% | -1.7 |
| New York Giants | 2.5% | 2.7% | -0.2 |
| Carolina Panthers | 1.8% | 2.4% | -0.6 |
| Cleveland Browns | 1.6% | 2.1% | -0.5 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 1.4% | 10.2% | -8.8 |
| Houston Texans | 1.1% | 2.5% | -1.4 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 0.3% | 1.0% | -0.7 |
| New Orleans Saints | 0.3% | 0.7% | -0.4 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 0.2% | 0.8% | -0.6 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0.2% | 0.7% | -0.6 |
| Washington Commanders | 0.2% | 0.8% | -0.7 |
| New York Jets | 0.1% | 0.6% | -0.5 |
| Arizona Cardinals | <0.1% | 0.5% | -0.5 |
| Miami Dolphins | <0.1% | 0.6% | -0.6 |
| Tennessee Titans | 0% | 0.6% | -0.6 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 0% | 0.7% | -0.7 |
| Team | Our model | Adjusted market estimate | Gap (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 14.2% | 13.7% | +0.5 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 13.8% | 5.9% | +7.9 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 12.4% | 4.7% | +7.7 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 8.0% | 7.0% | +1.0 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 7.4% | 4.9% | +2.5 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 7.4% | 9.5% | -2.2 |
| Buffalo Bills | 7.2% | 10.6% | -3.4 |
| New England Patriots | 5.7% | 3.3% | +2.4 |
| Chicago Bears | 4.9% | 6.0% | -1.1 |
| Denver Broncos | 3.8% | 3.6% | +0.2 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 3.0% | 1.3% | +1.7 |
| Detroit Lions | 2.6% | 3.6% | -1.0 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 1.4% | 5.7% | -4.3 |
| Green Bay Packers | 1.4% | 2.2% | -0.8 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 1.3% | 1.4% | -0.1 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1.1% | 0.7% | +0.4 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 1.1% | 2.3% | -1.3 |
| New York Giants | 0.8% | 1.2% | -0.4 |
| Carolina Panthers | 0.6% | 0.8% | -0.2 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 0.6% | 5.0% | -4.4 |
| Cleveland Browns | 0.5% | 0.6% | -0.1 |
| Houston Texans | 0.5% | 1.2% | -0.7 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 0.1% | 0.5% | -0.4 |
| New Orleans Saints | 0.1% | 0.5% | -0.4 |
| Indianapolis Colts | <0.1% | 0.4% | -0.3 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | <0.1% | 0.5% | -0.5 |
| Washington Commanders | <0.1% | 0.6% | -0.6 |
| New York Jets | <0.1% | 0.5% | -0.5 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 0% | 0.5% | -0.5 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 0% | 0.5% | -0.5 |
| Miami Dolphins | 0% | 0.5% | -0.5 |
| Tennessee Titans | 0% | 0.5% | -0.5 |
Seed chances, team by team
Each team’s chance of finishing in each playoff seed, or out. Darker means more likely.
| AFC | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville | 21 | 23 | 23 | 25 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| Kansas City | 21 | 16 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 9 |
| Buffalo | 20 | 16 | 14 | 11 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 11 |
| Cincinnati | 14 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 14 | 12 | 9 | 13 |
| Denver | 10 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 19 | 13 | 11 | 21 |
| New England | 6 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 22 |
| Pittsburgh | 6 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 27 |
| Cleveland | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 14 | 55 |
| Baltimore | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 73 |
| Houston | <1 | <1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 84 |
| Las Vegas | <1 | <1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 89 |
| Indianapolis | <1 | <1 | 2 | <1 | 1 | 2 | 95 | |
| NY Jets | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | 1 | 2 | 96 |
| Miami | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | 99 | ||
| Tennessee | <1 | <1 | <1 | 100 | ||||
| LA Chargers | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | 100 |
| NFC | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco | 40 | 36 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 2 |
| Minnesota | 43 | 27 | 2 | <1 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 3 |
| NY Giants | 1 | 4 | 30 | 21 | <1 | 1 | 2 | 41 |
| Seattle | 5 | 10 | 1 | <1 | 25 | 21 | 15 | 23 |
| Chicago | 6 | 7 | 1 | <1 | 23 | 20 | 16 | 26 |
| Atlanta | <1 | 2 | 16 | 17 | <1 | 1 | 3 | 60 |
| Dallas | <1 | 2 | 14 | 19 | <1 | 1 | 3 | 60 |
| Detroit | 4 | 6 | 1 | <1 | 15 | 17 | 17 | 40 |
| Carolina | <1 | 2 | 13 | 14 | <1 | 1 | 3 | 67 |
| Tampa Bay | <1 | 1 | 11 | 16 | <1 | 1 | 2 | 69 |
| Green Bay | 1 | 2 | <1 | <1 | 9 | 13 | 17 | 58 |
| LA Rams | <1 | 1 | <1 | <1 | 6 | 9 | 13 | 70 |
| New Orleans | <1 | 2 | 5 | <1 | <1 | 1 | 92 | |
| Philadelphia | <1 | 1 | 4 | <1 | <1 | <1 | 95 | |
| Washington | <1 | 2 | 3 | <1 | <1 | 1 | 95 | |
| Arizona | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | 1 | 99 |
How the odds have moved this season
The chart fills in from tonight: each team’s playoff chance is recorded every night, so the season’s story builds up week by week.
Team by team
Pick a team for its seed chances, its projected win total, every game left with its win chance, and the game that matters most to its season.
How the playoffs work
Fourteen teams make the playoffs, seven from each conference. The four division winners take seeds 1 to 4, ordered by record, and the three best remaining records take seeds 5 to 7 as wild cards. Only the No. 1 seed gets a bye; the wild-card round is 2 v 7, 3 v 6 and 4 v 5, all at the higher seed. In the divisional round the No. 1 seed plays the lowest seed left. The higher seed hosts every game up to the Super Bowl, which is played at a neutral site.
Ties in the standings are broken in a fixed order. Inside a division: head-to-head, division record, record in common games, conference record, strength of victory, then strength of schedule. For wild-card places and seeding: head-to-head (or, with three or more teams, a sweep), conference record, common games (at least four), strength of victory and strength of schedule. Teams from the same division are separated first, and the process starts over each time a team is placed.
How this page works
Every night the page reads every NFL result and the full schedule from ESPN. Each team gets a rating in points from its results this season: the margin of each game, capped at 24 points so one blowout does not swamp the rest, adjusted for home field (1.5 points) and for the strength of the opponent. Early in the season the ratings lean on last season, halved; that weight fades as the games come in.
The rest of the season is then played 100,000 times. Each game is decided by the gap between the two ratings, with the spread of real NFL results (about 13 points either way) and a small chance of a tie, and each team’s strength is allowed to drift over the rest of the season, so a hot or cold run carries through. The standings of every simulated season are seeded with the NFL’s tiebreakers, and the playoffs are played out the same way. The odds are the share of seasons in which each thing happened.
Where the model simplifies. The tiebreakers are applied in the NFL’s order down to strength of schedule. The official steps after that (points-based rankings, net points, touchdowns and finally a coin toss) are replaced by a coin toss, because the simulation does not play out scores. Ties that go that far are rare, but they happen. The ratings use only results this season and last; they know nothing about injuries, trades or quarterback changes until those show up in the scores. And 100,000 simulations describe how precise the arithmetic is, not how good the forecast is: a 0% or 100% here means no simulated season went the other way, not that the outcome is mathematically settled.
The adjusted market estimate comes from two leading prediction sites, read in the same nightly run, for comparison only. The scenario builder and the season simulator run the same model in your browser.