NBA Draft Lottery
2027 NBA Draft Lottery Odds
Every team’s chances under the new 3-2-1 lottery, worked out from 100,000 simulated draws of tonight’s standings, including who really owns each pick. Updated October 29, 2026.
Draw the lottery
The machine holds tonight’s lottery field: 3 balls for each team that misses the play-in, 2 for the three worst records, 2 for the No. 9 and 10 play-in seeds and 1 for the loser of each 7 v 8 play-in game (decided by a coin flip until the real games are played). Balls come out one at a time, and a team’s first ball sets its pick.
Lottery odds for every team
Each team’s own pick, worst record first. Odds already include the streak rules (Washington Wizards cannot pick first; Utah Jazz cannot pick in the top five) and the floor that keeps the three worst teams in the top 12. The strip shows the chance of each pick from 1 to 16, darker meaning likelier.
| Team | Record | Lottery balls | No. 1 | Top 4 | Avg pick | Picks 1 to 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooklyn Nets | 0-4 | 2 balls | 6.4% | 24.4% | 8.0 | |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 0-4 | 2 balls | 6.3% | 24.1% | 8.0 | |
| Sacramento Kings | 0-4 | 2 balls | 6.3% | 24.2% | 8.0 | |
| Chicago Bulls | 1-4 | 3 balls | 9.4% | 34.4% | 7.3 | |
| Miami Heat | 1-4 | 3 balls | 9.3% | 34.0% | 7.4 | |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 1-4 | 3 balls | 9.5% | 34.7% | 7.3 | |
| Orlando Magic | 1-3 | 3 balls | 9.3% | 34.0% | 7.4 | |
| Utah Jazz | 1-3 | 3 balls | 0% | 0% | 8.6 | |
| LA Clippers | 1-2 | 3 balls | 9.3% | 34.3% | 7.3 | |
| Phoenix Suns | 1-2 | 3 balls | 9.2% | 34.2% | 7.4 | |
| Atlanta Hawks | 2-3 | out (50%), 1 ball (50%) | 1.6% | 6.4% | 14.3 | |
| Golden State Warriors | 2-3 | 2 balls | 6.2% | 24.1% | 9.0 | |
| Indiana Pacers | 2-3 | 2 balls | 6.2% | 23.9% | 9.0 | |
| New York Knicks | 2-3 | 1 ball (50%), out (50%) | 1.6% | 6.3% | 14.3 | |
| Washington Wizards | 2-3 | 2 balls | 0% | 24.3% | 9.0 | |
| Dallas Mavericks | 2-2 | 2 balls | 6.3% | 24.4% | 9.0 | |
| Denver Nuggets | 2-2 | out (50%), 1 ball (50%) | 1.5% | 6.2% | 14.8 | |
| San Antonio Spurs | 2-2 | 1 ball (50%), out (50%) | 1.5% | 6.3% | 14.8 |
Who owns each pick
Fifteen first-round picks for 2027 belong to other teams or are tied to swaps. The odds of each outcome come from the same simulated lotteries, so a pick’s protections and swaps play out exactly as the trade terms say. Trade terms checked September 11, 2026.
| Pick of | Goes to | Top 4 | Terms |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Knicks | Nets 100.0% | 6.3% | Goes to Brooklyn. |
| Brooklyn Nets | Rockets 100.0% | 24.4% | Houston can swap: the Rockets take the better of their own pick and this one, Brooklyn gets the other. |
| Houston Rockets | Nets 100.0% | 0% | Houston keeps the better of its own pick and Brooklyn’s. |
| Atlanta Hawks | Spurs 100.0% | 6.4% | Goes to San Antonio. |
| Phoenix Suns | Rockets 100.0% | 34.2% | Goes to Houston. |
| Miami Heat | Heat 92.7% Hornets 7.3% | 34.0% | Goes to Charlotte unless it lands in the top 14; if it does, Miami sends Charlotte its unprotected 2028 first instead. |
| Dallas Mavericks | Hornets 88.0% Mavericks 12.0% | 24.4% | Goes to Charlotte unless it lands first or second; if it does, Dallas sends a 2028 second-round pick instead. |
| Los Angeles Lakers | Grizzlies 100.0% | 0% | Goes to Memphis unless it lands in the top four; if it does, the Lakers send their 2027 second-round pick instead. |
| San Antonio Spurs | Kings 50.1% Thunder 49.9% | 6.3% | Goes to Sacramento if it lands 1 to 16, to Oklahoma City if it lands 17 to 30. |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | Suns 100.0% | 0% | Shared with Minnesota and Utah: Memphis takes the best of the three picks, Utah the second, Phoenix the third (if Utah’s own pick is top five, Utah keeps it and Memphis and Phoenix split the other two). |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | Jazz 100.0% | 0% | Shared with Cleveland and Utah: Memphis takes the best of the three picks, Utah the second, Phoenix the third. |
| Utah Jazz | Grizzlies 100.0% | 0% | Part of the Cleveland and Minnesota split above; top-five protected (and the top-five streak rule means it cannot land in the top five in 2027). |
| Milwaukee Bucks | Pelicans 58.4% Hawks 41.6% | 34.7% | New Orleans takes the better of its own pick and Milwaukee’s, Atlanta gets the other; if both land in the top four, New Orleans keeps both. |
| New Orleans Pelicans | Hawks 51.6% Pelicans 48.4% | 24.1% | New Orleans keeps the better of its own pick and Milwaukee’s. |
| Denver Nuggets | Thunder 92.0% Nuggets 8.0% | 6.2% | Part of the Oklahoma City chain: top-five protected (Denver then owes its 2028 first to Oklahoma City). |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | Raptors 100.0% | 0% | Oklahoma City takes the two best of its own, the Clippers’ and Denver’s picks; the Clippers take the better of the leftover and Toronto’s pick, Toronto gets the last. |
| LA Clippers | Thunder 100.0% | 34.3% | Part of the Oklahoma City chain above. |
| Toronto Raptors | Clippers 100.0% | 0% | Part of the Oklahoma City chain: the Clippers can swap with Toronto. |
Who ends up holding the No. 1 pick, counting picks owned through trades, not just a team’s own.
| Team | Holds No. 1 | Holds a top-4 pick |
|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Pelicans | 15.8% | 58.7% |
| Houston Rockets | 15.6% | 58.6% |
| Chicago Bulls | 9.4% | 34.4% |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 9.3% | 34.3% |
| Miami Heat | 9.3% | 34.0% |
| Orlando Magic | 9.3% | 34.0% |
| Sacramento Kings | 7.8% | 30.5% |
| Dallas Mavericks | 6.3% | 12.0% |
| Golden State Warriors | 6.2% | 24.1% |
| Indiana Pacers | 6.2% | 23.9% |
| Brooklyn Nets | 1.6% | 6.3% |
| San Antonio Spurs | 1.6% | 6.4% |
| Denver Nuggets | 1.5% | 6.2% |
| Washington Wizards | 0% | 24.3% |
| Charlotte Hornets | 0% | 12.4% |
Run 1,000 lotteries
Lotteries are random enough that the favourite rarely wins. Press run and your browser draws the lottery 1,000 times from tonight’s standings, counting who ends up holding the No. 1 pick. The orange mark is the expected share.
How the odds have moved this season
Each team’s chance that its own pick lands first, recorded every night. Drag the slider to replay the season.
Old rules against the new rules
The same standings run through the lottery used from 2019 to 2026 (14 teams, the three worst at 14% each) and through the 3-2-1 lottery. Grey is the old chance of the No. 1 pick, blue the new.
6.4%
6.3%
6.3%
9.4%
9.3%
9.5%
9.3%
0%
9.2%
9.3%
0%
6.2%
6.2%
6.3%
Tanking stops paying at the very bottom. Under the old rules the worst record carried the best odds. Now the three worst teams lose a ball and get the same chance as a No. 9 or 10 play-in seed, while the teams just above them (4th to 10th worst) get the most balls.
The lottery covers 16 picks, not 4. Every pick from 1 to 16 is drawn, so a team can fall as far as 16th; only the three worst are protected, with a floor of 12th.
The play-in now has lottery stakes. The No. 9 and 10 seeds keep two balls each and the loser of each 7 v 8 game keeps one.
The relegation zone
The three worst records are “draft relegated”: two balls instead of three, but no worse than the 12th pick. These are the teams around the line tonight.
| Team | Record | Status tonight | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brooklyn Nets | 0-4 | Relegated: 2 balls, floor 12th |
| 2 | New Orleans Pelicans | 0-4 | Relegated: 2 balls, floor 12th |
| 3 | Sacramento Kings | 0-4 | Relegated: 2 balls, floor 12th |
| 4 | Chicago Bulls | 1-4 | Out of the zone: 3 balls, can fall to 16th |
| 5 | Miami Heat | 1-4 | Out of the zone: 3 balls, can fall to 16th |
| 6 | Milwaukee Bucks | 1-4 | Out of the zone: 3 balls, can fall to 16th |
The league also gave itself new powers against tanking with this format: it can reduce a team’s lottery odds, move its draft position, fine it up to $10 million and suspend team officials.
Every lottery since the 2019 odds change
Since the odds were flattened in 2019, the team with the worst record has won the lottery only once, in 2026. The two before that went to long shots.
| Draft | Won by | Lottery rank | Odds | No. 1 pick | Picks 2 to 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Washington Wizards | Worst | 14.0% | AJ Dybantsa | Jazz, Grizzlies, Bulls |
| 2025 | Dallas Mavericks | 11th worst | 1.8% | Cooper Flagg | Spurs, 76ers, Hornets |
| 2024 | Atlanta Hawks | 10th worst | 3.0% | Zaccharie Risacher | Wizards, Nets, Raptors |
| 2023 | San Antonio Spurs | T-2nd worst | 14.0% | Victor Wembanyama | Hornets, Trail Blazers, Rockets |
| 2022 | Orlando Magic | 2nd worst | 14.0% | Paolo Banchero | Thunder, Rockets, Kings |
| 2021 | Detroit Pistons | 2nd worst | 14.0% | Cade Cunningham | Rockets, Cavaliers, Raptors |
| 2020 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 3rd worst | 14.0% | Anthony Edwards | Warriors, Hornets, Bulls |
| 2019 | New Orleans Pelicans | T-7th worst | 6.0% | Zion Williamson | Grizzlies, Knicks, Lakers |
Picks 2 to 4 are listed by the team whose pick it was, before trades.
How this page works
Every night the page reads the current NBA standings, places each team in its lottery group, and draws the 2027 lottery 100,000 times under the 3-2-1 rules the Board of Governors approved on May 28, 2026 for the 2027 to 2029 drafts. Each simulated draw also runs every pick protection and swap, which is how the ownership odds are worked out. Until the play-in is played, the 7 v 8 games are treated as coin flips, and tied records are broken at random, as the league does by drawing lots.
The streak rules come from the same reform: a team’s own pick cannot go first in two straight drafts, or land in the top five in three straight drafts; when a drawn pick breaks the rule, it moves to the next pick it is allowed. On October 1 the page moves on to the next draft.