NHL Record Watch

McDavid vs Gretzky: The Chase for 215

Wayne Gretzky’s 215 points in 1985-86 has stood for four decades. Connor McDavid has 36 points in 13 games, 4 points ahead of Gretzky after the same number of games. Every game, side by side. Updated October 31, 2026.

36McDavid, 13 games
32Gretzky after 13
+4McDavid vs Gretzky
23384-game pace
5.0%Our chance he breaks 215

The race, game by game

Running points totals by game number: McDavid’s game 1 against Gretzky’s game 1, and so on. The shading shows who is ahead. The dashed line is McDavid’s path from here at the scoring rate set below. Hover or tap the chart for any game.

McDavid 2026-27Gretzky 1985-86McDavid from here215, the record

What he needs

180points needed for 216, the new record
2.54points a game over the Oilers’ 71 games left
2.69points a game to do it in 80 games, Gretzky’s total

For comparison, Gretzky averaged 2.69 points a game in 1985-86, and McDavid has averaged 2.77 this season and 1.64 over his previous three. The first figure assumes he plays every remaining game; each game he misses raises it. This season has 84 games, four more than Gretzky had, which is why the page also tracks the 80-game mark.

Will he break it? Our projection

The rest of the season played 100,000 times. Each run draws a scoring rate for McDavid, starting from his last three seasons and moving towards this season’s scoring as games come in, plus a chance of injury, then plays every remaining game. Updated after every game.

5.0%breaks 215 (216 or more)
2.6%breaks it within 80 games
174median final total (80% between 142 and 206)

Also: 15.5% chance of 200 or more, 0.4% chance of exactly 215, tying the record. Projected scoring rate from here: 2.09 points a game; projected games played: 79.2 of 84.

Where his season ends: share of simulations by final total

His chance after each game

Every game in colour

One square per game, darker for more points. McDavid’s game 1 sits above Gretzky’s game 1. Open squares are games still to play; the striped squares are games 81 to 84, which Gretzky’s 80-game schedule did not have. Hover or tap a square for the game.

Records within the record

McDavid’s season so far against Gretzky’s after the same number of games, and Gretzky’s full 80 games.

McDavid
13 games		Gretzky
13 games		Gretzky
all 80
Points3632215
Goals81152
Assists2821163
Longest point streak (games)13939
Multi-point games101061
4-point games or better4221
5-point games or better319
Most points in one game557
Hat tricks013
Games without a point013

Milestones

The game number in which each player reached each total. McDavid’s future milestones are projected at our projected scoring rate, assuming he plays every game; they move after every game.

PointsGretzky reached itMcDavid
50Game 23, Nov 30, 1985About game 20, 3 sooner (projected)
100Game 39, Jan 4, 1986About game 44, 5 later (projected)
150Game 58, Feb 14, 1986About game 68, 10 later (projected)
200Game 74, Mar 25, 1986Not reached at the projected rate
215 (the record)Game 80, Apr 6, 1986Not reached at the projected rate
216 (new record)Never (finished on 215)Not reached at the projected rate

Big nights, by game number

Next up, McDavid’s game 14: at Islanders, Sat Oct 31, 2 p.m. ET. In game 14, on Nov 8, 1985, Gretzky had 0 goals and 4 assists vs Canucks (4 points, 36 for the season). McDavid stays level even without a point, and one point puts him ahead.

Gretzky’s best games of 1985-86: every night with 6 or more points or a hat trick, next to McDavid’s game with the same number.

GameGretzkyMcDavid, same game number
113G 0A, vs Maple Leafs, Nov 3, 19850G 2A, vs Maple Leafs, Oct 24, 2026
300G 7A, at Blackhawks, Dec 11, 1985vs Sabres, Dec 1, 2026 (if he plays every game)
340G 6A, vs Kings, Dec 20, 1985at Sabres, Dec 10, 2026 (if he plays every game)
373G 0A, vs Flyers, Dec 31, 1985vs Stars, Dec 17, 2026 (if he plays every game)
413G 3A, at Maple Leafs, Jan 8, 1986at Capitals, Dec 28, 2026 (if he plays every game)
580G 7A, vs Nordiques, Feb 14, 1986vs Golden Knights, Feb 3, 2027 (if he plays every game)
632G 4A, at Jets, Feb 26, 1986vs Senators, Feb 22, 2027 (if he plays every game)

Every game, side by side

McDavid’s games are numbered by the games he has played; upcoming rows follow the Oilers’ schedule and assume he plays every game. “Gap” is McDavid’s running total minus Gretzky’s after the same number of games.

GameGretzky 1985-86OpponentG-A-PTotalMcDavid 2026-27OpponentG-A-PTotalGap
1Oct 10, 1985vs Jets2-1-33Sep 29, 2026vs Canucks0-2-22-1
2Oct 13, 1985vs Blues0-2-25Oct 1, 2026at Canucks1-4-57+2
3Oct 16, 1985vs Islanders0-1-16Oct 3, 2026vs Kraken1-1-29+3
4Oct 18, 1985vs Bruins0-2-28Oct 7, 2026at Ducks1-2-312+4
5Oct 20, 1985at Kings1-2-311Oct 10, 2026at Sharks0-1-113+2
6Oct 23, 1985at Jets0-1-112Oct 13, 2026at Kings1-3-417+5
7Oct 25, 1985vs Flames1-2-315Oct 15, 2026vs Mammoth0-1-118+3
8Oct 28, 1985at Flames1-4-520Oct 17, 2026at Mammoth2-3-523+3
9Oct 30, 1985vs Jets0-4-424Oct 20, 2026vs Wild0-3-326+2
10Nov 1, 1985vs Sabres0-0-024Oct 22, 2026vs Hurricanes2-3-531+7
11Nov 3, 1985vs Maple Leafs3-0-327Oct 24, 2026vs Maple Leafs0-2-233+6
12Nov 5, 1985at Canucks2-1-330Oct 26, 2026vs Red Wings0-1-134+4
13Nov 6, 1985at Kings1-1-232Oct 28, 2026vs Flames0-2-236+4
14Nov 8, 1985vs Canucks0-4-436Oct 31, 2026at Islanders---
15Nov 12, 1985at Capitals1-0-137Nov 1, 2026at Rangers---
16Nov 14, 1985at Flyers0-1-138Nov 3, 2026at Devils---
17Nov 16, 1985at Islanders1-0-139Nov 5, 2026vs Ducks---
18Nov 17, 1985at Rangers0-2-241Nov 7, 2026vs Canucks---
19Nov 19, 1985at Nordiques1-1-243Nov 9, 2026vs Rangers---
20Nov 20, 1985at Canadiens1-1-245Nov 11, 2026vs Flyers---
21Nov 23, 1985vs Devils0-1-146Nov 14, 2026at Maple Leafs---
22Nov 27, 1985vs Canucks2-0-248Nov 15, 2026at Flyers---
23Nov 30, 1985vs Whalers1-3-452Nov 17, 2026at Panthers---
24Dec 1, 1985vs Flames0-1-153Nov 19, 2026at Lightning---
25Dec 3, 1985at Kings0-1-154Nov 21, 2026at Hurricanes---
26Dec 5, 1985vs Kings0-5-559Nov 22, 2026at Blues---
27Dec 7, 1985vs North Stars1-4-564Nov 24, 2026vs Golden Knights---
28Dec 8, 1985vs Blackhawks0-1-165Nov 27, 2026vs Kraken---
29Dec 10, 1985at Blues0-2-267Nov 28, 2026at Kraken---
30Dec 11, 1985at Blackhawks0-7-774Dec 1, 2026vs Sabres---
31Dec 13, 1985at Jets2-2-478Dec 3, 2026vs Capitals---
32Dec 15, 1985vs Canucks0-3-381Dec 6, 2026at Blackhawks---
33Dec 18, 1985vs Capitals0-1-182Dec 8, 2026at Wild---
34Dec 20, 1985vs Kings0-6-688Dec 10, 2026at Sabres---
35Dec 22, 1985vs Jets2-1-391Dec 12, 2026at Senators---
36Dec 29, 1985at Canucks0-2-293Dec 14, 2026at Canadiens---
37Dec 31, 1985vs Flyers3-0-396Dec 17, 2026vs Stars---
38Jan 2, 1986at Flames1-1-298Dec 19, 2026vs Mammoth---
39Jan 4, 1986vs Whalers0-2-2100Dec 20, 2026vs Ducks---
40Jan 5, 1986vs Flames1-2-3103Dec 27, 2026at Blue Jackets---
41Jan 8, 1986at Maple Leafs3-3-6109Dec 28, 2026at Capitals---
42Jan 10, 1986at Nordiques0-3-3112Dec 30, 2026at Bruins---
43Jan 11, 1986at Canadiens1-3-4116Jan 2, 2027at Red Wings---
44Jan 13, 1986at Bruins1-2-3119Jan 3, 2027at Penguins---
45Jan 15, 1986at Whalers2-1-3122Jan 5, 2027at Predators---
46Jan 18, 1986vs Rangers0-2-2124Jan 7, 2027vs Panthers---
47Jan 22, 1986vs Penguins1-1-2126Jan 9, 2027vs Islanders---
48Jan 24, 1986vs Devils1-3-4130Jan 11, 2027vs Lightning---
49Jan 25, 1986vs Kings1-1-2132Jan 13, 2027vs Sharks---
50Jan 27, 1986at Blackhawks0-0-0132Jan 15, 2027vs Blue Jackets---
51Jan 29, 1986at Blues0-3-3135Jan 17, 2027vs Jets---
52Jan 31, 1986vs Flames0-4-4139Jan 20, 2027at Golden Knights---
53Feb 1, 1986at Flames0-3-3142Jan 21, 2027at Kings---
54Feb 6, 1986at Devils0-3-3145Jan 23, 2027at Sharks---
55Feb 8, 1986at Capitals0-2-2147Jan 26, 2027at Avalanche---
56Feb 9, 1986at Sabres0-1-1148Jan 28, 2027vs Devils---
57Feb 11, 1986at Red Wings0-1-1149Jan 30, 2027vs Canadiens---
58Feb 14, 1986vs Nordiques0-7-7156Feb 3, 2027vs Golden Knights---
59Feb 16, 1986vs Sabres1-3-4160Feb 12, 2027vs Blues---
60Feb 19, 1986vs Maple Leafs2-0-2162Feb 13, 2027vs Penguins---
61Feb 22, 1986vs Bruins1-1-2164Feb 17, 2027vs Avalanche---
62Feb 24, 1986vs Canadiens1-1-2166Feb 19, 2027vs Bruins---
63Feb 26, 1986at Jets2-4-6172Feb 22, 2027vs Senators---
64Mar 2, 1986vs Flyers0-1-1173Feb 25, 2027at Predators---
65Mar 4, 1986at Canucks0-4-4177Feb 27, 2027at Stars---
66Mar 5, 1986vs Kings2-2-4181Mar 1, 2027at Blackhawks---
67Mar 7, 1986vs Penguins0-2-2183Mar 3, 2027at Flames---
68Mar 9, 1986at Kings1-3-4187Mar 6, 2027vs Blackhawks---
69Mar 11, 1986at North Stars0-0-0187Mar 9, 2027vs Kings---
70Mar 12, 1986at Jets0-2-2189Mar 11, 2027vs Predators---
71Mar 14, 1986vs Red Wings1-4-5194Mar 13, 2027at Kraken---
72Mar 18, 1986vs Jets1-2-3197Mar 15, 2027at Avalanche---
73Mar 21, 1986vs North Stars0-1-1198Mar 18, 2027vs Blues---
74Mar 25, 1986at Red Wings0-3-3201Mar 20, 2027vs Stars---
75Mar 26, 1986at Penguins1-3-4205Mar 21, 2027at Canucks---
76Mar 28, 1986at Rangers0-1-1206Mar 23, 2027at Flames---
77Mar 29, 1986at Islanders0-3-3209Mar 25, 2027at Wild---
78Apr 2, 1986vs Canucks1-1-2211Mar 27, 2027vs Kings---
79Apr 4, 1986at Flames0-3-3214Mar 31, 2027vs Sharks---
80Apr 6, 1986at Canucks0-1-1215Apr 2, 2027at Golden Knights---
81No game: the 1985-86 season had 80Apr 3, 2027at Ducks---
82No game: the 1985-86 season had 80Apr 5, 2027vs Flames---
83No game: the 1985-86 season had 80Apr 7, 2027at Jets---
84No game: the 1985-86 season had 80Apr 10, 2027vs Jets---

How this page works

Gretzky’s numbers are his 80 games of 1985-86 from the NHL’s game logs: 52 goals and 163 assists for 215 points, still the single-season record, with his own 212 (1981-82), 208 (1984-85) and 205 (1983-84) the next three. McDavid’s games come from the same NHL stats feed, checked every hour, so the page updates shortly after each Oilers game ends.

Game numbers, not dates. The two seasons are compared by game number. Gretzky played every one of the Oilers’ 80 games that season. The 2026-27 schedule has 84 games, the first 84-game season since 1993-94, so McDavid can play four games Gretzky never had. That is why the page shows the 80-game mark as well as the full season, and why points a game is the fairer comparison of the two seasons.

The projection. Every update plays out the rest of the season 100,000 times. Each run draws a scoring rate for McDavid. It starts from his last three full seasons (1.64 points a game), counted as 20 games’ worth of evidence, and moves towards this season’s scoring as the games come in, so a hot start counts for more with every game but does not take over on its own. Each remaining game then has a 1% chance of an injury starting, which keeps him out for 8 games on average (close to the share of games he missed over the last three seasons), and his points in each game he plays are drawn from that rate. The chance shown is the share of runs in which he reached 216.

Where the model simplifies. It does not know about opponents, linemates, power-play time or the Oilers’ standing late in the season. It treats every game as equally likely to bring points, and it cannot see an injury until he misses a game. The pace slider assumes he plays every remaining game.

Era. Scoring was much higher in 1985-86. Teams averaged close to four goals a game, well above today’s level, which makes McDavid’s pace all the more unusual and Gretzky’s total no less remarkable for its time.