Max Holloway vs Charles Oliveira Betting Odds
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2
BMF Title on the Line in Las Vegas
Saturday, March 7, 2026 | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Main Card: 9:00 PM ET on Paramount+
Ten years is a long time in fighting. When Max Holloway and Charles Oliveira first met in August 2015, Holloway was a rising featherweight prospect and Oliveira was still trying to find his footing in the UFC. That fight lasted all of 99 seconds before a neck injury to Oliveira brought it to a premature halt. Since then, both men have gone on to claim UFC gold, amass Hall of Fame resumes, and establish themselves as two of the most exciting fighters the sport has ever produced.
Now, at UFC 326, they finally get the fight that fans were robbed of a decade ago. And this time, with the BMF title hanging in the balance and a massive Las Vegas crowd packing the T-Mobile Arena, the stakes are about as high as they get for a non-championship bout.
Main Event: Max Holloway (c) vs. Charles Oliveira
Lightweight Bout | BMF Championship
Holloway (27-8) | Oliveira (36-11)
The numbers alone tell you everything about what kind of fight this could be. Holloway holds the all-time record for significant strikes landed in UFC history. Oliveira holds the records for most finishes (21), most submissions (17), and most performance bonuses (21) in UFC history. These are two of the most prolific offensive fighters to ever step into the Octagon, and stylistically this matchup is a dream for anyone who enjoys watching high-level violence.
Where Holloway Stands
Holloway enters on the back of a quality unanimous decision win over Dustin Poirier at UFC 318 in July 2025 (48-47, 49-46, 49-46), where he successfully made the first defence of the BMF title he won with that sensational walk-off knockout of Justin Gaethje at UFC 300. Before that, he suffered a TKO loss to Ilia Topuria in a featherweight title fight, his first stoppage defeat. The Topuria loss was a bump in the road, but the Poirier fight proved that Holloway's striking is as sharp as ever. He outlanded Poirier 113-99 in significant head strikes over five rounds and showed excellent composure after getting rocked in the second round.
What makes Holloway dangerous in this matchup is his output and accuracy. He never stops throwing, he never stops walking forward, and he has an almost supernatural ability to find the chin with his straight shots from range. Against a fighter like Oliveira who tends to march forward into exchanges, Holloway should have plenty of opportunities to let his hands go.
Where Oliveira Stands
Oliveira comes in off a strong rebound performance, submitting Mateusz Gamrot via rear-naked choke in the second round in October 2025 in Rio de Janeiro. That was an important win because Oliveira's recent form had been inconsistent. He went 3-3 over his previous six fights heading into UFC 326, with losses to Islam Makhachev (submission, UFC 280), Arman Tsarukyan (split decision, UFC 300), and Ilia Topuria (first-round KO, UFC 317). His wins during that stretch include a unanimous decision over Michael Chandler at UFC 309 in November 2024 and a TKO of Beneil Dariush at UFC 289.
The biggest question surrounding Oliveira heading into this fight is his chin at 36 years old. The Topuria knockout was vicious, and while the Gamrot submission bounce-back was encouraging, that fight was largely contested on the ground where Oliveira is most comfortable. Standing in front of Holloway for 25 minutes is a very different proposition. On the flip side, Oliveira remains one of the most dangerous submission artists in the history of the sport, and if he can close the distance and drag Holloway into the clinch or to the mat, the fight changes dramatically.
Betting Outlook
*Odds Subject to Change* Holloway opened as a -200 favourite and the line has held relatively steady. Oliveira is listed around +154 as the underdog. On the surface, the odds are about right. Holloway has the edge on the feet, his takedown defence is excellent, and his cardio over five rounds is proven. But dismissing Oliveira would be foolish. The Brazilian has the grappling chops to turn any fight into a submission attempt at a moment's notice, and he has shown time and again that he is most dangerous when his back is against the wall.
From a betting perspective, there are a few angles worth considering. The fight going the distance is a real possibility given Holloway's preference for accumulating damage over five rounds, though Oliveira's finishing ability means that inside-the-distance outcomes cannot be ignored. Holloway by decision or Holloway by TKO are both live plays. For those who like the underdog, Oliveira by submission represents interesting value. If "Do Bronx" can get a hold of Holloway, particularly in the later rounds if Holloway slows at lightweight, the submission threat is always lurking.
Co-Main Event: Caio Borralho vs. Reinier de Ridder
Middleweight Bout | 3 Rounds
Two middleweights looking to bounce back from significant losses headline the co-main event. Borralho (-225) had his 17-fight unbeaten streak snapped by Nassourdine Imavov in September 2025 and will be eager to remind the division why he was on such a roll. De Ridder (+185), a former dual-weight ONE Championship titleholder, saw his momentum stall badly when he quit on the stool against Brendan Allen in October 2025. That loss raised real questions about his durability and mental toughness at the UFC level.
The stylistic matchup favours Borralho. De Ridder's game is built around getting opponents to the ground and hunting for submissions, but Borralho's takedown defence sits at 76% in the UFC and he carries a BJJ black belt of his own, which neutralises much of de Ridder's grappling advantage. When the fight stays standing, Borralho has the quicker hands and more varied attack, landing 3.91 significant strikes per minute with patient pressure. He should be the busier and more effective fighter here. Borralho by decision or late stoppage is the lean.
Main Card Fights Worth Watching
Rob Font vs. Raul Rosas Jr.
Bantamweight Bout
This is a classic experience-versus-youth matchup at 135 pounds. Rob Font is a crafty veteran with some of the best boxing in the bantamweight division, and he has been a fixture in the top 15 for years. Rosas Jr. is one of the most hyped young fighters in the UFC, having become the youngest fighter to compete in the organisation's history. This fight was originally scheduled for September 2025 but was postponed after Rosas Jr. withdrew with a rib injury. Font's technical striking could prove difficult for the young prospect to deal with, but Rosas Jr. has the grappling ability to change the complexion of the fight. Keep an eye on round totals and method of victory props in this one.
Gregory Rodrigues vs. Brunno Ferreira
Middleweight Bout
A rematch from UFC 283 in January 2023, when Ferreira knocked out Rodrigues in the first round. Rodrigues will be looking for revenge, and Ferreira, who replaced Paulo Costa on this card after Costa withdrew in late December, is always a volatile proposition. When Ferreira connects clean, the lights go out for his opponents. But he can also be hit, and Rodrigues has the power to take advantage. This is one of those middleweight fights where neither man is going to want to go to a decision, and it could easily be over inside two rounds. A finish is very likely, and if you fancy a flutter on the method of victory, KO/TKO in either direction has genuine appeal.
Prelim Picks
The prelim card carries some intriguing fights as well. Cody Garbrandt vs. Xiao Long is an interesting bantamweight bout featuring the former champion looking to prove he can still compete at a high level. Garbrandt has always been a highlight-reel knockout artist, but his chin has let him down in recent years. At the other end of the card, the flyweight bout between Cody Durden and Nyamjargal Tumendemberel is a solid scrap between two fighters looking to establish themselves in a division that has been relatively wide open.
Final Thoughts
UFC 326 is a card built around the main event, and rightfully so. Holloway and Oliveira are two fighters who never fail to deliver, and given the history between them, the BMF title stakes, and the fact that this is the first UFC event to be partially broadcast on CBS, there is every reason to believe both men will come out swinging from the opening bell. The supporting card has enough action-style fights to keep things moving, and there is value to be found if you look at the right matchups.
The smart money says Holloway gets it done, either on the cards or via a late stoppage when Oliveira's chin betrays him. But Oliveira has been counted out before, and his ability to snatch a submission from the jaws of defeat makes him a live dog worth respecting. Either way, this one should be fun.
Quick Reference: Key Odds
Max Holloway (c) -200 vs. Charles Oliveira +154 | Lightweight, BMF Title
Caio Borralho -225 vs. Reinier de Ridder +185 | Middleweight
Odds are subject to change. Always check for the latest lines before placing any wagers.
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Fight Details:
Date: March 7th, 2026
Event: UFC 326
Venue: T-Mobile Arena
