September 22nd, 2011
Can "Rampage" Stop Jones?
UFC 135: "Jones vs Rampage" is set to take place at the Pepsi Center in Denver, Colorado this Saturday. The event will be headlined by Jon "Bones" Jones looking to successfully defend his title for the first time against Quinton "Rampage" Jackson.
Let's take a look at the odds for this event and give our picks/analysis:
(Odds Courtesy of Bodog)
Jon Jones, -600
Quinton Jackson, +400
Pick: Quinton Jackson, +400
Do I think that Quinton Jackson will win this fight? Not necessarily.
Do I think that Jon Jones at -600 is ridiculous? Absolutely.
In my opinion, there is a great deal of value in picking Jackson at +400. His weight is not an issue (as it was for the Rashad Evans fight, for instance) and he seems to be extremely motivated. Jackson has put in a 13 week camp for this fight, and by all accounts is in fantastic shape.
Jon "Bones" Jones is an immensely talented fighter, and he should win this fight. However, I believe that Jackson has a good chance of clipping Jones with a hook and winning this fight. Jackson has great TDD and is an excellent boxer. I'm going with the upset here..
Matt Hughes, +400
Josh Koscheck, -600
Pick: Matt Hughes, +400
We're taking another massive underdog? That's right. If Jackson or Hughes manages to pull off a victory, then we will score a nice profit for the night. I like the odds of at least one of these guys winning.
Josh Koscheck is coming off of a long layoff after having his face caved in by GSP at UFC 124. In addition to the long layoff, Koscheck also took this fight on just 19 days notice.
All things being equal, Koscheck would win this fight 9 out of 10 times. However, with a long layoff and after taking the fight on such short notice, I'll take Hughes for the upset.
Nate Diaz, -250
Takanori "The Fireball Kid" Gomi, +190
Pick: Nate Diaz, -250
Diaz is coming off of two straight losses (MacDonald and Dong Hyun Kim) and desperately needs a victory. Gomi is coming off of a loss to Clay Guida at UFC 125.
Diaz desperately needs this win, and I believe that he will get the win via submission.
Ben Rothwell, -340
Mark Hunt, +260
Pick: Mark Hunt, +260
Mark Hunt is tough as nails and is certainly in the twilight of his career. Rothwell is coming off of a unanimous decision win over Gilbert Yvel.
Rothwell would win this fight more often than not, but I'll take the former K-1 star as he will always have a puncher's chance. In my opinion, the value is with Hunt here.
Travis Browne, -450
Rob Broughton, +300
Broughton should get crushed here, but taking Browne at -450? Not a chance. Again - the value is with the underdog here.