Always Keep an Eye on Weight CutsPublished on November 8th, 2016 5:38 pm EST
Betting on mixed martial arts can be extremely lucrative if you know what you are doing. More so than any other sport that I can think of, there is an opportunity for a knowledgeable sports gambler to exploit inappropriately priced lines, as many bookmakers will have just a basic knowledge of fighters, especially those appearing on undercards.
There are three tips that I would like to impress upon you if you want to substantially increase your chances of becoming a winning mixed martial arts bettor. Here they are:
1) Preliminary fights offer the greatest value. If you are a person that does their research, you can take advantage of some tremendous value on the prelims. There is usually at least one massive upset (at least, in terms of the betting lines) on the preliminary card of any UFC event. The reason? Bookmakers aren't particularly knowledgeable on prelim fighters, and often times the lines will be skewed wildly in any one particular direction.
All of the money will usually be wagered on the big fights (such as Conor McGregor or Ronda Rousey fights), but the true value is found in the preliminary fights. Familiarize yourself with the lower level fighters and you will find great value opportunities.
2) Weight cuts matter. A bad weight cut can significantly hurt the chances of a fighter to emerge victorious in their fight. If somebody misses weight after a very bad weight cut, or if somebody makes weight but looks very drawn-out on the scale, this is certainly a point against them when fight night comes around. A fighter who endures a terrible weight cut will likely be weak and have a limited gas tank on fight night, which definitely benefits their opponent. All other things being equal, a bad weight cut will likely decide the outcome of a fight.
3) The opponents of "chalky" fighters can provide great value. If a fighter is "chalky", this means that many people are betting on them due to their overall popularity. Conor McGregor is a great example of this - Irish fans will bet heavily on McGregor, which results in some pretty crazy betting lines.
For instance, when McGregor took on Nate Diaz for the first time, McGregor was a -400 favorite going into the fight. Given Nate's experience, and given the fact that McGregor was moving up in weight, this was a tremendous value for Diaz. After weathering an early storm, Diaz used his experience and superior cardio to eventually win the fight in the second round.
Follow these three tips and you will likely significantly improve your MMA betting results. Best of luck!